Since the start of the Syrian uprising President Obama has projected decided unwillingness for even limited military involvement, and even though the number of Syrian fatalities has passed the 100,000 mark. The Congressional approval President Obama requested on August 31, 2013 for military involvement in Syria sets a critical precedent, and raises several legal issues as well as questions about the posture of the United States in the Middle East. Turning to Congress could highlight America’s image as a superpower seeking to...
In contrast to the determined and unified response to Qaddafi in 2011 that included the use of force by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Arab countries have thus far failed to take a firm and united stand toward Syria. The Arab world remains divided on the Syrian question, as reflected in the Arab League resolutions of August 27 and September 1, 2013, which refrained from giving a green light for military action without the blessing of the UN. Against the tough line advocated by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Tunisia, Algeria,...
Israel is not directly involved in the civil war in Syria or in a potential US strike. However, the threats from Syria, Iran, and Hizbollah demand that an American attack be analyzed as to what it means for Israel’s national security. This article analyzes two scenarios for an American attack and what they mean for Israel’s short term and long term interests in the Syrian context. The first is the anticipated limited attack intended as punishment of the Assad regime, and the second is a broader attack aimed at toppling the regime....
Until the publication of reports that Bashar Assad’s army carried out a large attack using chemical weapons in an eastern suburb of Damascus, Washington had not seriously considered military intervention in Syria. In light of the conclusion by Western intelligence agencies that the Assad regime is responsible for using chemical weapons, the US government is considering a military response. A military response, however, does not stand alone; it obligates the United States to define its strategic purpose in using military force...
On August 21, 2013 reports of a large chemical attack in the suburbs of Damascus began to surface, along with online video clips showing grim photographs of wounded civilians. According to rebel sources, rockets, some carrying chemical weapons, struck an area held by the rebels in the suburbs of Damascus. Whether the attack was planned in advance and the order came from above, or it was the result of events over which the Syrian regime had no control, around the world it is seen as a grave incident that cannot be ignored. In the...
While the United States and its Western allies have limited tools to influence events in Syria without military force, neither the United States nor Europe is interested in further military involvement in the region following the experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan. In addition, the international system is incapable of taking substantive decisions on Syria due to the expected Russian and Chinese veto in the UN Security Council. One military option with a likelihood of broad international and regional backing is the creation of a...
Along with the events on the ground in Syria, the war for the country’s future is being waged on the international level. The principal players are the United States and Russia, conducting this clash while resorting alternately to pressure, threats and attempts at dialogue. The most recent round occurred on June 17-19, 2013 at the G-8 summit in Northern Ireland. The summit, which generally deals with all major issues on the international agenda, was devoted this time almost entirely to Syria, and at the center was a charged...
Hizbollah’s increasingly apparent involvement in the bloodshed in Syria has hurt the organization’s legitimacy and popularity within Lebanon. The discourse in the Lebanese social media in recent months indicates the depth of the crises that Hizbollah now faces. The terms “civil war,” “confrontation,” “political vacuum” and “sectarian struggle” pepper the online discourse frequently, implying that Lebanon is on a trajectory towards internal strife. The discussions on Lebanese...
On May 17, 2013, The Times of London quoted “Israeli intelligence sources” who argued that “an intact, but weakened, Assad regime would be preferable for the country and for the whole troubled region.” The paper went on to quote “a senior Israeli intelligence officer” in the north of the country: “Better the devil we know than the demons we can only imagine if Syria falls into chaos and the extremists from across the Arab world gain a foothold there.” We do not know who the Israeli...
One week has passed since the attacks near Damascus, which according to American sources destroyed advanced Fateh-110 surface-to-surface missiles making their way from Iran to Hizbollah in Lebanon. Now that the dust has settled and it seems as if the strike was contained – there was no immediate response either from Syria or Hizbollah – one can point to some initial conclusions. At the same time, it is entirely possible that we are in the midst of a greater crisis, both in terms of a belated reprisal and especially in terms of the...
On April 23, 2013, at the INSS annual conference “Security Challenges of the 21st Century,” the head of the Research Division of IDF Military Intelligence said that Israel has information indicating that Assad’s forces used a lethal chemical weapon against the rebels, likely sarin, along with incapacitating chemical agents. This statement, the first time such an assertion was made by a senior official Israeli source, made waves in Israel and internationally. The following day, senior American sources confirmed that there...
The uprising against Assad’s regime that began more than two years ago has so far taken a toll of over 70,000 dead, over one million refugees who have fled Syria, and a larger number of refugees within the country, and there is still no end in sight, whether through political or military means. On the ground, the situation seems to be at an impasse. This article discusses how the military stalemate between the regime and the rebels might be broken in favor of the moderate rebels, thereby creating an opportunity for a decision...
