The recent suicide attack in Sri Lanka, launched by a local group linked to the Islamic State, targeted the symbols of Christianity and Western tourists and businesspeople. The attack aimed to terrorize Sri Lankan citizens, drive a wedge between them and the government, and foment discord between the various ethnic groups. It demonstrated anew that the lack of effective cooperation and intelligence sharing between the intelligence, security, and enforcement agencies is a central factor in the success of terror groups to carry out...
The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
The dynamic evident when President Donald Trump commented on the annual risk assessment prepared by the US intelligence community, seen also following the President’s decision to withdraw US troops from Syria, reflects the President’s current modus operandi vis-à-vis his administration. Processes unfold along two parallel tracks: on the one hand, using Tweets, the President promotes a policy that matches his approach on any given issue; on the other hand, administration systems are poised to minimize damage and provide...
A growing body of literature documents how Islamic extremist groups utilize technology to recruit potential new extremists. This back-end analysis is not matched, however, by the equally important frontend part of the process: How and why do these virtual propaganda/recruiting tools work on populations living in Western societies? Why are people susceptible to extremism while living in stable, free democracies? This paper fuses elements of cognitive psychology) specifically Siboni’s concept of the “first cognitive war”) and virtual...
Each of the nearly eight years of civil war in Syria has been characterized by a central phenomenon or trend that influenced the development of the war and the future of the country. What began as a civil uprising in 2011 against the regime led by President Bashar al-Assad developed in 2012-2013 to a sectarian struggle of rebel organizations opposing the Assad regime, which is supported by Iran and Hezbollah. In 2014 the splits among the rebel factions continued along distinct sectarian and religious lines, with the dominance of...
For the United States, which still has interests in the Middle East, a hasty withdrawal of forces from Syria weakens its influence on processes in the region and limits its room to maneuver in the face of existing challenges. The US administration leaves its allies with question marks regarding US ability to back their policies, and at the same time, heightens Iran’s motivation to strengthen its grip and influence in the area. Israel remains alone in its campaign against Iranian entrenchment in Syria, and at most will receive...
Senior members of the security establishment have claimed that the current terrorist threat in Europe is unprecedented. This essay examines this claim against the background of the waves of terrorism that have plagued Europe over the last five decades, and specifically in light of the nature of the current threat and the response that it demands. The terrorist threat in Europe in recent years has focused primarily on Muslim Europeans and converts to Islam. These perpetrators are usually veterans of the wars in Iraq and Syria who...
The European Union in Turbulent Times: Challenges, Trends, and Signifcance for Israel maps, reviews, and analyzes the urgent issues on the European agenda. The essays in this collection review the political, social, and economic consequences of these issues and assess their significance, both for Europe and for Israel.
Depicted at 2018 Munich Security Conference is a challenging view of the global security environment, marked by a dangerous combination of worsening trends regarding the world’s climate, economy, and society; weakening strategic architectures; challenging technologies; and volatile crisis areas, led by North Korea and Syria. The Palestinian issue was marginalized, given its low influence on Middle East problems in general. Indeed, the Middle East is a secondary focus of attention for the international community, currently occupied...
The war in Syria that began seven years ago is now on the brink of a new stage, as reflected in recent weeks by incidents on the various fronts. Inevitably, the complex fabric of interests among the many elements involved has resulted in conflicts and has renewed the sense of “all versus all.” During the events between Israel, Syria, and Iran on February 10, 2018, Russia worked to stop the escalation from becoming a violent round of fighting. The United States seemed at once present but absent; its voice was not heard...
Turkish-US tensions stemming from Operation Olive Branch in Afrin have brought the deteriorating bilateral relations of the past two years to a new low. Whereas the major aim of the US interests in Syria continues to be preventing the return of the Islamic State, Turkey will continue to take action to take advantage of the post-Islamic State reality in order to achieve its goals vis-à-vis the Kurds. The conduct of all the parties involved in northern Syria will likely continue to be characterized by a sensitive and volatile reality...
Initial indications are that Iran has not yet operated the land corridor through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon to any significant extent; this impression has been bolstered by statements by the US Secretary of Defense. The reason seems to be Iran’s fear of attacks on convoys using the corridor, be they by US forces, the IDF, or Islamic State and Sunni elements. This fear will apparently continue in the future.
