The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community.
The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...
The gradual decline in the number of suicide bombings in 2018 and 2019 continued in 2020, with a 14.5 percent drop from the previous year. Most of the suicide bombings were concentrated in three countries: Afghanistan, Somalia, and Syria. There was also a steep drop in the number of victims. Salafi-jihadist organizations again accounted for a decisive majority of the world’s suicide bombings, and were directly or indirectly responsible for 95 percent of all such attacks. Whether the decline in suicide bombings in recent years...
In the past few months, Wilayat Sinai (the Sinai Province), which is the Islamic State (ISIS) affiliate in Egypt, carried out two unconventional attacks. On November 19, 2020 it blew up (yet once more) a pipeline that carries natural gas from Israel to Egypt and on July 21 it attacked an Egyptian military base in the area of Rabaa in Sinai. Following that attack, Wilayat Sinai militants held four nearby villages that were liberated by the Egyptian army only after three months of fighting. The attack on Rabaa was unusual and may...
With the ongoing struggle against the Covid-19 pandemic and its economic and societal consequences dominating the headlines in Israel, a public opinion survey conducted by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in August 2020 found that the public was less worried about security threats than threats to healthcare and the economy. Recently, however, the Gaza Strip has reminded Israel that the security threats still exist. The significant security escalation in the Gaza arena in recent weeks is liable to develop into a...
In January 2020, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) hosted its 13th Annual International Conference. Entitled “Strategic Assessment for Israel: A Look at the Coming Decade,” the conference included discussions, simulations, and lectures on strategic issues important to Israel’s national security. The conference was attended by decision makers, opinion leaders, and leading researchers from Israel and abroad. We invite you to read the digital version of the booklet that summarizes the conference...
Hezbollah’s military capabilities, which have been built up over recent decades with the help of Iran, are the leading conventional threat facing Israel. Since the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006, the organization’s capabilities have strengthened both quantitatively and qualitatively, and its rocket and missile arsenal has increased more than ten-fold. The common assumption is that neither Israel nor Hezbollah is interested in war and that they are mutually deterred from it. Nonetheless, the risks of escalation have not waned,...
The global, regional, and internal implications of the coronavirus are still not fully clear, but Israel’s 35th government will have no 100-day grace period. It must quickly restore the economy to full activity, despite the presence of the virus and the possibility of a renewed outbreak. On the security level, all the regimes in the Middle East are busy with the pandemic and internal affairs, and will most likely seek to avoid escalation in conflicts with Israel. At the same time, the risk of unplanned escalation (in Syria,...
Tension between Hezbollah and Israel has risen in recent weeks, at the same time that the coronavirus swept through the region. While both sides are busy combating the pandemic, they are also preparing for the expected continuation of the conflict once the crisis is over, while maintaining the existing balance of deterrence between them. At this stage, their actions show that they are adhering to their policies: Hezbollah is smuggling advanced weaponry and consolidating its presence in the Golan Heights, while Israel is countering...
The coronavirus crisis has elicited responses from Salafi-jihadists around the world, including Islamic State and al-Qaeda spokesmen and Islamic clerics. The range of responses has included strict guidelines for believers on how to protect themselves from the pandemic, part of the commandment to save lives, and exhortations to return to Islam and encourage believers to continue the struggle despite the blows they suffered with the disappearance of the Islamic State. The serious crisis in the West has also led to responses of gloating...
Nine years after the dramatic events of late 2010 and early 2011 (the so-called Arab Spring), the regional upheaval persists and the Middle East continues to be characterized by instability, uncertainty, and volatility. There is broad consensus among researchers and observers that the region is mired in a deep crisis, while undergoing processes with crucial long term implications and engaged in a turbulent contest over its character.
This struggle is unfolding in two realms: first, between four main camps competing over ideas, power,...
