At the start of H. E. President Isaac Herzog’s term of office, and following the many global and local developments and changes over the past six months – including a new administration in Washington, President Biden’s decision to try to return to the nuclear deal with Iran, the formation of a new government in Israel, and growing tensions in Israeli society, including clashes between Arabs and Jews in Israeli cities – the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) presented to President Herzog highlights on the main strategic...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community.
The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...
The gradual decline in the number of suicide bombings in 2018 and 2019 continued in 2020, with a 14.5 percent drop from the previous year. Most of the suicide bombings were concentrated in three countries: Afghanistan, Somalia, and Syria. There was also a steep drop in the number of victims. Salafi-jihadist organizations again accounted for a decisive majority of the world’s suicide bombings, and were directly or indirectly responsible for 95 percent of all such attacks. Whether the decline in suicide bombings in recent years...
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi is trying to block further internal and economic deterioration in his country, while maneuvering between Iran and the United States, which have turned Iraq into a theater of struggle between them. Al-Kadhimi recently embarked on political journeys to Tehran and Washington for talks on the US efforts to allow Iraq to attain energy independence. The series of economic agreements that al-Kadhimi signed during these visits, together with other steps he took, including in the regional sphere,...
In January 2020, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) hosted its 13th Annual International Conference. Entitled “Strategic Assessment for Israel: A Look at the Coming Decade,” the conference included discussions, simulations, and lectures on strategic issues important to Israel’s national security. The conference was attended by decision makers, opinion leaders, and leading researchers from Israel and abroad. We invite you to read the digital version of the booklet that summarizes the conference...
Initial steps taken by the new Prime Minister of Iraq, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, indicate that he intends to restrain the elements that weaken and destabilize the country, among them the militias supported by Iran. These measures join other developments challenging the active presence of Iran and its proxies in Iraq: from demonstrations that refuse to die out, and have instead escalated following their violent suppression, to the killing of Soleimani, to Iran’s inability to persuade the political factions in the Iraqi parliament to...
The US administration, considers the appointment of Iraqi National Intelligence Service head Mustafa al-Kadhimi as Prime Minister of Iraq as an opportunity to reinforce the US hold in Iraq and counter Iran’s efforts to consolidate its influence there. The strategic dialogue expected to take place soon between the United States and Iraq is a critical juncture in their relations, in part because the outcome is likely to affect the future of the American military presence in Iraq. Israel has a clear interest in the success of this...
The global, regional, and internal implications of the coronavirus are still not fully clear, but Israel’s 35th government will have no 100-day grace period. It must quickly restore the economy to full activity, despite the presence of the virus and the possibility of a renewed outbreak. On the security level, all the regimes in the Middle East are busy with the pandemic and internal affairs, and will most likely seek to avoid escalation in conflicts with Israel. At the same time, the risk of unplanned escalation (in Syria,...
Iran is not expected to cede its consolidation in Syria, despite its economic difficulties and the danger of extensive popular protest related to the coronavirus pandemic. But it is possible that Iran will be forced to reduce its entrenchment activity in Syria, at least temporarily, mainly for economic reasons. Against this backdrop, the question arises: could Iran try to take advantage of Israel’s preoccupation with the coronavirus crisis to ignite a large scale conflict, especially through a strong response to Israeli air...
The coronavirus crisis has elicited responses from Salafi-jihadists around the world, including Islamic State and al-Qaeda spokesmen and Islamic clerics. The range of responses has included strict guidelines for believers on how to protect themselves from the pandemic, part of the commandment to save lives, and exhortations to return to Islam and encourage believers to continue the struggle despite the blows they suffered with the disappearance of the Islamic State. The serious crisis in the West has also led to responses of gloating...
