On March 1, 2024, elections were held for the Iranian parliament, the Majles, and the Assembly of Experts. Despite the anticipated victory for the conservatives, these elections held significant importance as they marked the first substantial test of the regime’s power since the widespread wave of protests that swept Iran in 2022 and against the backdrop of a likely power struggle to take over the country in the coming years. Despite calls from senior regime officials urging the public to vote, the Interior Ministry reported a...
Recent months have seen Iran engaged in a diplomatic campaign designed to breach its international isolation and the sanctions regime. In this framework, Iran seeks membership in international organizations that challenge Western dominance. It has already been accepted to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and has been invited to join Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa as a member of BRICS. In addition, Iran’s President and a number of ministers visited Asia, Africa, and Latin America in an effort to tighten political,...
Recent weeks have seen a spirited public debate within the Islamic Republic concerning the participation of many Iranians in Shiite religious ceremonies and the significance of such activity for the status of religion in Iranian society. The debate is unfolding against the background of profound trends in Iran over the past few decades, including rapid secularization, the erosion of clerical authority, Westernization, and modernization. Nonetheless, these trends do not necessarily indicate a full shift toward secularism as understood...
Egypt and Iran have recently been discussing the possibility of normalizing diplomatic relations between them for the first time since 1979. This historic move may serve various interests of both countries, yet there are still some reservations, especially on the part of Cairo. Egypt is currently reviewing the nature of the change in Iran’s conduct following its normalization with Saudi Arabia in April 2023, and has been attentive to the views of the Gulf states and the Unites States regarding possible moves moves. Normalization...
Recent weeks have seen the resumption of near-daily protests throughout Iran by pensioners protesting the ongoing erosion of their pensions and their growing economic distress. At the same time, senior Iranian figures have warned of the severe crisis affecting pension funds. The distress of the pensioners has become one of the main social and economic issues on the Iranian agenda in recent years. The main causes of the pension fund crisis are the aging population, the low legal retirement age, the decision by many workers to take...
In late April and early May, there were five attacks on clerics in Iran, following other attacks on clerics in the past year. In addition, the past few months have seen a growing phenomenon of young people approaching clerics walking along the street and throwing off their turbans. Although there is no sign of a direct connection between all the incidents, at least some are presumably expressions of increased public hostility toward clerics. The hardline clerics’ insistence on continuing to enforce the Islamic dress code...
The State of Israel is now engulfed in an unprecedented and perilous set of circumstances. While Iran is on the nuclear threshold and the Palestinian arena is on the brink of wide escalation, Israel itself is racing toward the brink of passing fateful legislation that would reshape its governing system. Israel’s enemies watch with satisfaction, drawing confidence and daring toward new levels of brinksmanship, which could easily lead to escalation and possibly war. For Israel to cross the legislative threshold from the current reality...
The protest in Iran, entering its fourth month, has apparently thus far not succeeded in posing a significant and immediate threat to the regime. The scope of the violent demonstrations has narrowed, significant social sectors have not joined the protest, and there is no evidence of rifts among the political elite or the security and repression forces, led by the Revolutionary Guards. However, this does not mean that the regime has succeeded in suppressing the protest and that the situation will revert to what it was. Occasional...
In recent weeks, public debate in Iran has resumed regarding the possibility of transferring power after the death of the current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, to his son Mojtaba. In the background of this debate is criticism of the idea of cultivating Mojtaba as a possible successor, sounded by the leader of the reformist opposition, Mir-Hossein Mousavi; a report on the promotion of Mojtaba to a high religious status with the rank of ayatollah; and an expression of support for his possible appointment as leader from one of the...
Recent weeks have seen renewed escalation of repressive political and civil measures by the Iranian authorities. Since early July, the security forces have arrested Mostafa Tajzadeh, a leading reformist political activist, as well as three prominent filmmakers regarded as critics of the regime. At the same time, the authorities, led by President Raisi, have stepped up the campaign for enforcing an Islamic dress code. Underlying the growing repression is the mounting popular protest in recent months, intensification of internal...
Disagreements between Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his rivals in the conservative camp have intensified in recent weeks. Politicians, media outlets, and hardline clerics have criticized him, reflecting growing dismay with his policy and failure to improve the economic situation. At the same time, disputes have also recently emerged between the government and the Majles on certain issues, and Majles members have even begun an initiative for the dismissal of a number of ministers in Raisi’s government. The tension between...
In recent days, demonstrations have erupted in Iran, particularly in the southwestern provinces of the country, in protest of the sharply rising prices of basic goods. In clashes with security forces, at least three people were killed, and dozens of protesters were injured and arrested. The price hikes are the result of the government’s decision to abolish the official subsidized exchange rate intended for the import of a number of basic food products. The widening gap between the subsidized exchange rate and the free-market exchange...
