The downing of the Russian jet by the Turkish air force on November 24, 2015 sparked a rapid deterioration of relations between the two nations. In fact, the incident has created a new international reality with ramifications for bilateral Turkish-Russian issues, regional dynamics, and the international community. In Russia, which has a long, charged history with Turkey, the downing of the plane was seen as a severe blow to its image in several ways: internationally, in the context of the Syrian crisis, and internally. Russia,...
The confrontation between Turkey and Russia heightens the instability in the Middle East by reducing the possibility of concluding the ongoing crisis in Syria and successfully contending with the Islamic State. Israel can derive a number of tactical and strategic lessons from the confrontation, and in this context, should also underscore that Syria cannot be reunited and the area must be stabilized through a re-demarcation of borders, perhaps within a federative framework. Yet regardless of the solution found, the lesson from the...
More than a month after Russia began to intervene militarily in the war in Syria, negotiations were launched under Russian auspices to promote a resolution of the crisis. Russia is expected to encounter considerable difficulty in its effort to devise a solution to the crisis in Syria on both the military and political levels. Further achievements are not guaranteed, including the linkage between the settlements in Syria and Ukraine. In addition, it appears that Assad’s standing is becoming a burden for Moscow. Cooperation with Iran...
Russia’s intervention in the Syrian civil war allows – or perhaps even requires – Israel to reevaluate its objectives and rules of the game vis-à-vis other actors in the region, beginning with Iran and the Assad regime. Though faced with Tehran’s ambition for regional hegemony and an Iranian military presence on the border with Syria and Lebanon, Israel has so far avoided any move that might help topple Assad and thereby also uproot Iran’s hold over Syria and deny Hizbollah strategic depth in the country. Despite the high level of...
All efforts toward a solution to the Syrian crisis must acknowledge that the Syria of 2010, a sovereign nation with internationally recognized borders, no longer exists. The drive of some in the international community to turn the clock back and stabilize the “old” Syria under a new government has no political or strategic viability. Any strategy formulated with the goal of stopping the civil war in Syria and shaping its future must have a clear starting assumption: the collapsed, divided Syria cannot be pieced together. Therefore,...
Russia’s involvement in the Syrian crisis constitutes a new strategic paradigm in the Middle East and the international arena. This will have significant implications for the balance of power and the rivalries in Syria’s civil war, and for the struggle between the superpowers for global influence. Israel is also affected by these implications, given the change in the balance of power and given the risk of internal Syrian pressures spilling over into southern Syria and the Golan Heights. • Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent...
In practice, Syria is already split internally and divided into areas under the influence of external powers. As the Russians deploy, the coastal region will all but come directly under their control. Northern Syria, especially the Kurdish region, is under Turkish influence. The central axis of Syria – from Damascus to Homs and Aleppo – and the Syrian-Lebanese border are, with Hizbollah’s help, under Iranian influence. Eastern Syria is the battlefield for the war by the US-led international coalition against the Islamic State. Israel...
The European Union finds itself in the throes of a far-reaching humanitarian crisis, as waves of refugees and asylum seekers flock to its gates in numbers not seen since the end of World War II. The hundreds of thousands who have already arrived and the hundreds of thousands who are expected to reach the shores of Europe before the end of the year have taken EU member states by (incomprehensible) surprise and consequently, have found these states unprepared to deal with the influx. At the same time, the EU is in the throes of a deep...
Many recent reports have claimed that Russia intends to step up its involvement in Syrian affairs, continue its support for the regime of Bashar al-Assad, and attempt to stop the spread of the Islamic State. Concurrently, rumors suggest that Russia is stitching together broad understandings with several interested parties, including the United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia, France, and Egypt, whereby Russia is willing to accept Assad’s resignation (and perhaps host him indefinitely in Moscow) but is not willing to topple the current...
The strikes by the Turkish air force in Syria, which began on July 24, 2015, along with Turkey’s intention to establish a safe zone in northwestern Syria, inspired the headline “Turkey Joins the Coalition against the Islamic State,” even though Turkey has already been a member of this coalition since it was founded in 2014. In addition to the change in Turkish policy, the question arises of Turkey’s long term commitment to the coalition. Another question is whether Turkey is not already giving precedence to the struggle against the...
Despite the difficulty in envisioning the final outcome of the campaign in Syria, and under the assumption that Syria will not return to the situation that existed there prior to the outbreak of the civil war, Israel must prepare for the future. It must update the strategic considerations that until now have driven the current policy of non-intervention. This demands proposing a competing approach to the existing conception, which claims that Iran is the main threat, and identifies the Islamic State as a threat that is more severe...
