The understandings led by the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia to cut oil production are the principal multilateral measure aimed at stabilizing the global economy during the coronavirus crisis. It is expected to revive OPEC+ and build the initial infrastructure for strengthening the cartel’s influence on the entire energy market. Despite the conflicting interests of the respective parties and the loose nature of the agreement, the common economic distress should help to maintain compliance in the coming months. If the...
A comparative analysis enables us to examine different approaches to the challenges posed by the corona pandemic around the world. Most countries have adopted a similar coping strategy, based on three components: the first is a lockdown policy (to varying degrees), in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus and avoid overloading the health system; the second is the improvement of preparedness and readiness in health systems; and the third is a broad economic aid package in response to the sudden economic shutdown and the deep...
The corona crisis, which has fueled a high degree of global uncertainty and increased the chances of distorted perceptions, will likely also have an impact on Israel’s strategic environment. While the outbreak of the virus reduces the chances of military escalation anytime soon, a brainstorming session held at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) highlighted ten negative scenarios that could occur during the crisis. The outbreak itself could increase the likelihood of: a collapse of regimes and governing systems, a wave...
Itai Brun | Yoel Guzansky | Daniel Rakov | Sarah J. Feuer
The United States’ implementation of a mitigation strategy to combat the coronavirus has been slow and disjointed, and that stands to hinder its ability to cope with the pandemic. The results of the outbreak will likely be significant in the domestic arena, with combined public health-economic crises weighing heavily on political outcomes, changing the way electoral campaigns are run as well as how votes are cast. In the global context, the US is expected to turn inward as it seeks to cope with and then recover from the...
The peace agreement signed by the United States and the Taliban on February 29, 2020 in Doha, Qatar is intended to end the nearly two-decade war between the Taliban and US-led forces in Afghanistan. In the broader strategic picture, the failure of the US to achieve a decisive victory over the Taliban in Afghanistan in the course of 19 years of fighting highlights the limitations of military power. Iran in particular could seemingly benefit from the US withdrawal (notwithstanding possible cross-border destabilizing ramifications), as...
President Trump’s relations with the American intelligence community reflect a deep crisis in the relations between intelligence agencies and decision makers, which are complex in any case. An analysis of the crisis reveals a complicated picture. Trump’s criticism is partly justified, and indeed speaks to fundamental problems afflicting the intelligence organizations in the United States. It appears, however, that underlying the crisis is Trump’s more basic and disturbing concept of the role that the mechanisms and...
“The Deal of the Century,” formulated by the Trump administration, is presented as a new paradigm for a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that also shapes the architecture of a new Middle East. The plan recognizes Israel’s extensive security requirements and enables Israel to apply its sovereignty on the settlement blocs, the Jordan Valley, and the isolated settlements; avoids uprooting and evacuating Jewish settlers; and preserves a united Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty. For the Palestinian side, the plan outlines...
Israel’s Memorandum of Understanding with the United States, which is in its second year, is the largest ever signed between the two countries. However, contracts have not yet been signed for large purchases, such as new platforms and weapons systems, due to previous commitments about purchasing in the past. At the same time, the IDF has a tremendous need for key platforms and systems sold by the United States, including fighter planes, fuel tankers, and heavy helicopters, mainly because most of those it currently has were purchased...
The INSS 13th Annual International Conference (January 28-30, 2020) hosted senior political and military figures, experts, and decision makers from Israeli and abroad. Discussions centered on four areas: the international power system; the regional environment; Israel’s political and security challenges; and Israel’s internal arena – all with a view toward the coming decade. Particular attention was paid to “the deal of the century,” Iran after Soleimani, and Israel’s northern front. This article presents the main insights from...
“If the Israelis and the Palestinians want one state, that’s okay with me. If they want two states, that’s okay with me. I’m the broker,” said United States President Donald Trump in September 2018. And indeed, the indecision is over: the Trump administration has officially endorsed the two-state solution, to be achieved through “the deal of the century.” The President thus continues the policy of all his predecessors in the White House over the last five decades, based principally on UN Security Council Resolutions...
The timing of President Donald Trump’s invitation to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and to Chairman of the Blue and White alliance and Knesset opposition leader Benny Gantz to meet with him in Washington as part of the launch of the “deal of the century” was driven by the current political circumstances in both Israel and the United States. Beyond the political considerations, however, at issue is a key item on Israel’s national security agenda: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For this reason, it is important to analyze the...
At the core of the strategic assessment for 2020 stands the tension between Israel’s evident strength and its success in various fields, and the possibility that this positive state of affairs will prove temporary and fragile. This tension stems from a series of factors that in the coming year could lead to a large-scale conflict and even to war, and involves Israel’s approach to a series of substantive national security challenges: Iran’s increasing audacity – on the nuclear issue, in its efforts at force buildup in Syria and other...
