In a surprising move during a visit to Saudi Arabia, Saad al-Hariri announced his resignation as Prime Minister of Lebanon. Hariri had scathing words for Hezbollah and Iran, accusing them of plotting his assassination. It appears that this move is the result of a decision by Saudi Arabia, taken in the context of its power struggle with Iran. Emboldened and gaining in strength following its achievements in Syria and Iraq, Iran’s successes demonstrate that for now, Tehran has the upper hand in several Middle East arenas. The extent to...
The recent visit by Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz to Russia was described by Saudi Arabia as historic; Moscow likewise attributed much significance to the visit, because it regards Saudi Arabia as a key Middle East state, and because it saw in it Riyadh’s recognition of Russia’s influence in the region. Despite their differences on Syria and other issues, Riyadh and Moscow have a string of common interests, headed by the goal of stabilizing oil prices. Furthermore, Moscow realizes that not only will it be difficult to enhance its...
Saudi Arabia’s current foreign policy is more assertive than it has been for years; some would even call it adventurous. However, it appears that the cost of this policy often exceeds its benefits. The Saudi strategic picture is now dominated by the significant damage to the Kingdom’s regional status due to Iran’s achievements, the difficulties Riyadh has encountered in the effort to influence the balance of power in the conflicts in Syria and Iraq, the struggle with Qatar, and considerable internal challenges. These issues create...
The boycott of Qatar by its neighbors in the Gulf is expected to affect the rate of its growth, but if Qatar succeeds in easing the capital flight, it will not result in a severe, long-term recession. As most of the costs incurred in the retreat from integration among the countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council affect the longer term and will not create immediate pressure on the countries boycotting Qatar, it is reasonable to assume that the costs also will not play a central role in shaping their policies in the crisis. These...
Events of recent weeks in both nearby and distant arenas have reshuffled the cards vis-à-vis the state of affairs in the Gaza Strip. The result has been the emergence of possible conditions for change – that is, if Israel takes advantage of them through cooperation with Egypt and the Gulf states. Recent developments have created circumstances and constraints for the actors in the arena that can potentially be leveraged as strategic opportunities to reshape the Gaza arena. Cooperation between Israel, Egypt, and the Gulf states,...
Mohammed bin Salman, recently named as Saudi crown prince, enjoys a reformist image, and because of his young age has the potential to rule the kingdom for decades. His official appointment lifts the fog from the question of succession and can contribute to a more energetic and active image of Saudi Arabia, even if it lends some uncertainty as to the kingdom’s policy and ability to meet the challenges ahead. So far bin Salman’s appointment has been accepted without public protest. But opposition could emerge from within the royal...
President Trump’s statements during his recent visit to the Middle East reflect a profound commitment to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. To this end, President Trump is demonstrating his desire to avoid the mistakes of the preceding administration, which was not successful in advancing an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. Nevertheless, despite the different “spirit” that President Trump brings with him regarding the peace process, it is difficult to understand the basis of his firm belief in his ability to “close...
The recent dispute between Qatar and some of its neighbors is the most serious dispute among them in years, and has the potential to further destabilize an already turbulent region. But the crisis also presents a potential opportunity. If a united front that includes the United States and the leading countries in the Arab world can induce Qatar to contain its support for organizations that promote extremism and threaten regional order, it could help stabilize the region, limit the reach of the Islamic State, and isolate Iran. The...
The severing of relations between Qatar and the Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, on the grounds that Qatar has been supporting terrorism, which follows on the heels of President Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, will have serious regional implications. Closing Qatar’s sea and air space and the land border with Saudi Arabia are tantamount to casus belli and could lead to chaos in the emirate if not solved soon. Isolating Qatar will also have serious regional implications on Israel and the Palestinian arena. Qatar is one...
President Trump’s visit to Riyadh was noteworthy for the grand reception his Saudi hosts prepared for him and for the announcement that the two nations will advance a long list of bilateral military and economic agreements. The Arab Islamic Summit organized by the Saudis was intended to demonstrate their status in the Muslim and Arab worlds. It would likewise enable Trump to demonstrate his success in establishing a united front in the struggle against the Islamic State and Iran, along with his intention to base United States...
In recent years, the price of a barrel of OPEC oil has plummeted. Following the steep decline in their revenues, combined with pressures from various oil producers, the Gulf states – according to the agreement signed in late 2016 – have had to accept cuts in their oil production in the first half of 2017. The main difficulty in converting the oil-based Gulf economies to economies with diversity is that political stability in these countries is directly related to the high standard of living of their citizens, which is supported by...
Visitors to Oman cannot help but be awed by the sultanate’s uniqueness, a critical component in the maintenance of its stability. But the current economic crisis and possible succession crisis are liable to test this stability in the not so distant future. For nearly half a century, Sultan Qaboos used his ability to mediate and balance hostile neighbors as the key to his foreign policy. His successor can be expected to maintain this delicate hedging strategy, motivated purely by the will to survive in a hostile neighborhood. But...
