Israel cannot ignore the procurement of advanced Russian weapons systems by its neighbors, or their accelerated entry into the nuclear field; these plans are liable to serve as a basis for obtaining greater know-how and as a cover for building nuclear weapons capability, certainly if the transfer of know-how includes enrichment capability. For its part, Russia is being careful to maintain positive relations with Israel, which it regards as an important regional player. Israel also regards Russia as a key player in the region, and the...
The terror attacks in Paris attributed to the Islamic State exposed severe intelligence failures and a lack of cooperation – or a willingness to cooperate – among European countries in the struggle against the Islamic State, and assigned the threat, yet once more, to a high position on the international agenda. It is almost certain that the Paris attacks will change, to some extent, the conduct of the European countries in their struggle against terror within their borders, especially against the backdrop of the intelligence-security...
The Islamic State burst onto the Middle East scene as an entity whose conduct and very essence challenge the existing regional order. With its military conquests in Iraq and Syria, its establishment of branches elsewhere in the Middle East and beyond, its state-like governance in the areas under its control, and the cruelty it typically exhibits, the Islamic State has become the focus of regional and international interest and concern. The articles compiled in this volume examine ways of dealing with one of the most salient military,...
The downing of the Russian jet by the Turkish air force on November 24, 2015 sparked a rapid deterioration of relations between the two nations. In fact, the incident has created a new international reality with ramifications for bilateral Turkish-Russian issues, regional dynamics, and the international community. In Russia, which has a long, charged history with Turkey, the downing of the plane was seen as a severe blow to its image in several ways: internationally, in the context of the Syrian crisis, and internally. Russia,...
The confrontation between Turkey and Russia heightens the instability in the Middle East by reducing the possibility of concluding the ongoing crisis in Syria and successfully contending with the Islamic State. Israel can derive a number of tactical and strategic lessons from the confrontation, and in this context, should also underscore that Syria cannot be reunited and the area must be stabilized through a re-demarcation of borders, perhaps within a federative framework. Yet regardless of the solution found, the lesson from the...
More than a month after Russia began to intervene militarily in the war in Syria, negotiations were launched under Russian auspices to promote a resolution of the crisis. Russia is expected to encounter considerable difficulty in its effort to devise a solution to the crisis in Syria on both the military and political levels. Further achievements are not guaranteed, including the linkage between the settlements in Syria and Ukraine. In addition, it appears that Assad’s standing is becoming a burden for Moscow. Cooperation with Iran...
Russia’s intervention in the Syrian civil war allows – or perhaps even requires – Israel to reevaluate its objectives and rules of the game vis-à-vis other actors in the region, beginning with Iran and the Assad regime. Though faced with Tehran’s ambition for regional hegemony and an Iranian military presence on the border with Syria and Lebanon, Israel has so far avoided any move that might help topple Assad and thereby also uproot Iran’s hold over Syria and deny Hizbollah strategic depth in the country. Despite the high level of...
All efforts toward a solution to the Syrian crisis must acknowledge that the Syria of 2010, a sovereign nation with internationally recognized borders, no longer exists. The drive of some in the international community to turn the clock back and stabilize the “old” Syria under a new government has no political or strategic viability. Any strategy formulated with the goal of stopping the civil war in Syria and shaping its future must have a clear starting assumption: the collapsed, divided Syria cannot be pieced together. Therefore,...
Russia’s involvement in the Syrian crisis constitutes a new strategic paradigm in the Middle East and the international arena. This will have significant implications for the balance of power and the rivalries in Syria’s civil war, and for the struggle between the superpowers for global influence. Israel is also affected by these implications, given the change in the balance of power and given the risk of internal Syrian pressures spilling over into southern Syria and the Golan Heights. • Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent...
In practice, Syria is already split internally and divided into areas under the influence of external powers. As the Russians deploy, the coastal region will all but come directly under their control. Northern Syria, especially the Kurdish region, is under Turkish influence. The central axis of Syria – from Damascus to Homs and Aleppo – and the Syrian-Lebanese border are, with Hizbollah’s help, under Iranian influence. Eastern Syria is the battlefield for the war by the US-led international coalition against the Islamic State. Israel...
Many recent reports have claimed that Russia intends to step up its involvement in Syrian affairs, continue its support for the regime of Bashar al-Assad, and attempt to stop the spread of the Islamic State. Concurrently, rumors suggest that Russia is stitching together broad understandings with several interested parties, including the United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia, France, and Egypt, whereby Russia is willing to accept Assad’s resignation (and perhaps host him indefinitely in Moscow) but is not willing to topple the current...
