Between Victory and Decisive Defeat: Evaluating Israel’s Ability to Achieve Its War Objectives Against Hamas
Tamir Hayman
Special Publication, November 23, 2025
The concept of victory has become increasingly politicized, particularly the notion of an “absolute victory.” At the same time, the term “decisive defeat” is widely used but rarely defined with precision. This article examines the concept of victory through a professional, military-strategic lens, differentiating it from decisive defeat. The distinction is essential for understanding Israel’s achievements in the war against Hamas and for framing public expectations, especially regarding scenarios in which Hamas may continue to exist...
This publication presents the executive summary of the memorandum. The full memorandum will be published soon.
Turkey Is Not Iran, but It Is a Threat
Gallia Lindenstrauss
INSS Insight No. 2061, November 18, 2025
Over the past year, Turkey has been increasingly described as “the new Iran” in Israeli public discourse. Although this characterization is problematic in several respects—including because it downplays the Iranian threat, which remains in force, and because Turkey is a NATO member—it nonetheless reflects concerns about Ankara. Israel is particularly worried by Turkey’s military presence in Syria, Ankara’s involvement in the Palestinian issue, and the potential for friction in the Eastern Mediterranean. In addition, Turkey is growing...
Gulf Involvement in Africa: Motives and Implications
Yoel Guzansky,
INSS Insight No. 2058, November 11, 2025
The growing involvement of the Gulf states in Africa reflects their aspiration to establish new spheres of influence on the global stage while taking advantage of a window of opportunity created by the somewhat reduced American engagement on the continent. Alongside localized cooperation, the intensifying competition among Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar for influence in Africa is creating friction—notably in Sudan and the Horn of Africa—and reflects a struggle to define the contours of the emerging regional...
Israel on Ice: Israel’s Interests in the Arctic
Paul Weisko
INSS Insight No. 2059, November 11, 2025
Israel may seem far removed from the Arctic, yet it does have interests in the region, spanning defense, diplomacy, and economics. While the defense dimension has generally been beneficial, the diplomatic aspect has, at times, posed major challenges. The economic interests, although notable, are less significant compared to the other two. How Israel manages each of these areas could ultimately determine whether its engagement with the Arctic helps or harms its broader national interests.
China’s relations with Iran were recently tested during the twelve-day Israel–Iran war and the US strike on Iran’s nuclear sites. While China’s diplomatic statements supported Iran verbally, they did little else. Chinese media reports covered the Iranian minister of defense’s visit to Beijing in June and mentioned the possible supply of air defense systems and fighter jets to Tehran, although China denied the former. As Beijing is typically cautious in its security, defense, and military cooperation with Iran, most public attention...
Combatants and Refugees: How the Six-Day War Undid the Results of the War of Independence
Special Publication, November 9, 2025
According to the German philosopher Hegel, history is written by universal reason, which reveals itself only when the future becomes reality and visible to the eye. This universal reason deceives the actors of history while they are preoccupied with the pursuit of political power, military conquests, glory, or wealth. Thus, the Israeli victory in 1967 brought down the barriers that had separated the various parts of the Palestinian people. At the end of the Six-Day War, the vast majority of the Palestinian nation found itself within...
The United States is determined to advance the implementation of President Donald Trump’s framework to end the war and reshape the Gaza Strip without Hamas, and with the area demilitarized of military and terrorist capabilities. The gap between the strategic objective and the challenges of implementation indicates that the success of the framework will require coercive and sustained American involvement, close coordination with Israel, and persuasive US efforts to convince moderate Arab states to take an active role in stabilizing,...
Donald J. Trump is a unique president. So far, he has proven himself to be an enthusiastic supporter of the State of Israel, and who leads a transformative foreign policy in the Middle East and the global arena. Multiple reasons suggest Israel cannot simply assume such strong US alignment with its interests and policies will persist. Thus, and in light of current shifts in the global, regional, and Israeli-Palestinian contexts, it is necessary to consider which policy goals Israel should set for its relations with Washington for the...
Recommendations of the Nagel Committee—Rushing Toward the AI Abyss
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INSS Insight No. 2048, November 5, 2025
The conclusions of the National Committee for Accelerating the Field of Artificial Intelligence, chaired by Prof. Yaakov Nagel, which were published recently, proposed a wide-ranging vision for the role of artificial intelligence in the State of Israel. The report’s conclusions and recommendations carry significant economic costs and have led to extensive public criticism. A closer look at the recommendations—particularly those with significant costs—raises concerns that the Nagel Committee chose to focus on acquiring status symbols...
The Swords of Iron War: Transformations in the Global, Regional, and Israeli-Palestinian Arenas - A Preliminary Assessment
Tamir Hayman
INSS Insight No. 2056, November 5, 2025
Following two tumultuous years—one of the most significant periods in the history of the State of Israel– this paper offers a preliminary assessment of the far-reaching changes brought about by the Swords of Iron War. While it is too early to fully analyze its consequences, and the war’s end remains uncertain, an interim evaluation is required. Even if fighting resumes, it will unfold under different circumstances, shaped by the lessons created by the war.
This paper reviews and analyzes the key developments of the war,...
A pressing question concerns the extent to which the Gulf states are prepared to send forces to stabilize and rebuild the Gaza Strip. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which possess significant economic and diplomatic leverage, are setting strict conditions for their involvement: the disarmament of Hamas and the transfer of its powers to the Palestinian Authority (PA). The UAE also demands a fundamental reform of the PA. These conditions may reflect a lack of real willingness to become involved, an understanding that Hamas cannot be...
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