Israel 2016-2017 Situation Assessment: Challenges and Responses

The essay analyzes Israel’s strategic situation and proposes policy recommendations that can constitute an overall political and security strategy for the coming years. Positive factors in the strategic picture include Israel’s military strength and the declining conventional threat posed by countries and non-state groups; the diminishing prominence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on the regional and international agenda; the absence of any immediate damage to Israel resulting from the nuclear deal between the major powers and Iran; and greater potential for cooperation between Israel and the Sunni countries. Negative factors include the continued political stalemate and Palestinian violence, the increased momentum of the BDS movement and the erosion of Israel’s legitimacy in the international arena; the possibility that Russian military intervention in Syria will strengthen the axis hostile to Israel; and the growing polarization in the internal Israeli arena. Policy recommendations proposed by the author include: strengthening ties with the United States; formulating a plan for dealing with a nuclear Iran; striving to improve relations with Sunni Arab countries; devising a response to economic and political challenges in the international arena; taking the initiative in the Palestinian theater; preparing for further conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah; making an effort to remove the threat from the radical axis in Israel’s northern theater; developing cyberspace capabilities; taking action to improve relations between the state and the Arab sector in Israel; and conducting a national dialogue on what characteristics Israel ought to embody. Supreme responsibility in the context of the national dialogue rests with the nation’s leaders – conducting it will be a leadership test of the highest order.