Hizbullah - (again) at a Crossroads

Hizbullah can be accurately described as at a crossroads ever since the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces from southern Lebanon in 2000, and even more so since the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon in 2005. Both events sharpened the choice between two paths that the movement has tried to follow since its inception: the Lebanese path, embodied in its political-parliamentary activity, and the regional/universal Islamist path, expressed in independent military action. Absent a decisive test of force between the movement and its domestic and regional rivals, Hizbullah’s leaders could continue to pursue both tracks simultaneously. But as the direct confrontation with Israel unfolds in July 2006, it may well become a real test of Hizbullah’s margin of maneuver. And if its military capabilities even partially survive the massive Israeli assault, the movement will at the end of the campaign still stand at the intersection of the two worlds in which it operates.