Special Survey: Three Years since October 7

Table of Contents:

Three years after the outbreak of the "Swords of Iron" War, the updated public opinion survey findings from the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) reflect a complex public perception: alongside skepticism regarding the overall strategic outcome, there is a profound trust gap between the operational and political echelons, accompanied by a cross-partisan demand for truth and accountability.

Limited Perception of Victory and Division on the Security Balance

The perception of victory among the Israeli public remains low across all conflict arenas:

• Gaza Arena: Only 27% of the public assess that Israel has won the campaign.
• Lebanon Arena: 38% assess that Israel achieved victory.
• Front against Iran: Only 23% view Israel as victorious.

This skepticism is also reflected in the assessment of the overall security balance: the public is divided on whether Israel's security situation has improved compared to the period prior to October 7 – 38% believe the situation has improved, 32% assess that it has worsened, and 26% believe there has been no fundamental change.

A Deep Divide in War Management: The IDF vs. The Government

The public draws a sharp distinction between military performance and political management: 61% of the public express satisfaction with the IDF's management of the war in Gaza, compared to only 34% who are satisfied with the government's management of the war. This gap reflects appreciation for the operational effort on the ground, alongside sharp criticism of governmental policy and leadership.

Fear of Renewed Threat and Skepticism Regarding Judea and Samaria

Prolonged fighting has not dispelled concerns over the potential recurrence of an event like October 7. A majority of the public (59%) estimates or is certain that an event similar to October 7 could recur in the coming years from the Gaza border – an increase from 52% last year (compared to only 32% who do not fear this).

Concurrently, there is a clear asymmetry in the perception of the IDF's readiness to defend different fronts: while most of the public believes in the military's readiness to defend southern communities (54%) and about half trust its readiness in the north (49%), deep skepticism was recorded regarding Judea and Samaria – only 33% believe the IDF is prepared to defend communities in this area (a decline from 39% last year).

Broad Public Support for a State Commission of Inquiry

The issue of military inquiries and lessons learned reveals a gap between internal military procedures and public expectations for an independent national review mechanism:

• Limited Trust in Military Inquiries: Less than half of the public (44% of the general sample and 47% of the Jewish sample) express high trust in the IDF's process of investigation and drawing lessons.

• Widespread Public Support for a State Commission of Inquiry: 75% of the public support the establishment of a State Commission of Inquiry. This support spans political camps and is backed by a majority even among coalition voters (52%).