The election of Donald Trump as president of the United States brought a sigh of relief among many Arab regimes. Before the elections, senior officials in Arab countries were careful not to indicate their preferred candidate for obvious reasons, but they clearly favored Trump over Kamala Harris for the following reasons:
Firstly, several key Arab leaders are already familiar with Trump and his team. Personal relationships were formed with Mohammed bin Zayed, president of the United Arab Emirates, and Mohammed bin Salman, crown prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Throughout the campaign, Trump consistently referred to bin Salman as a “friend” and lavished him with praise.
Secondly, during his previous term, Trump had a clear policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of foreign countries. Notably, he referred to Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as “my favorite dictator.” It is expected that Trump will continue this policy and refrain from criticizing regimes on issues of political freedom and human rights, aligning with the regimes’ preferences.
Thirdly, there is an expectation, particularly in the Gulf states, that Trump will adopt a tougher stance toward Iran than his predecessor, Joe Biden. Iran’s growing confidence and that of its proxies, as demonstrated in Hamas’s October 7 attack, are seen by many in the Gulf as linked to the relatively lenient stance that the United States took toward Iran under Biden’s administration.
In addition, Trump is perceived by regional countries as having close relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and, more importantly, considerable influence over him, to the point of being able to impose his views on Netanyahu. Israel’s neighbors hope for a swift end to the war in Gaza, which has increased pressure on them from their citizens and radical elements in the region. They hope Trump will pressure Netanyahu to end the war even before the start of his term.
Saudi Arabia anticipates that a “Trump 2.0” administration will be even more generous than Biden in the “carrots” it offers the kingdom in exchange for normalization with Israel, will be tougher on Iran, and will pressure Israel. Trump’s closeness to key leaders in the region and his influence over Netanyahu—potentially leading to Israeli concessions in line with the kingdom’s expectations, including advancing the two-state solution—also increases the likelihood of renewing and accelerating the normalization process.
The election of Donald Trump as president of the United States brought a sigh of relief among many Arab regimes. Before the elections, senior officials in Arab countries were careful not to indicate their preferred candidate for obvious reasons, but they clearly favored Trump over Kamala Harris for the following reasons:
Firstly, several key Arab leaders are already familiar with Trump and his team. Personal relationships were formed with Mohammed bin Zayed, president of the United Arab Emirates, and Mohammed bin Salman, crown prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Throughout the campaign, Trump consistently referred to bin Salman as a “friend” and lavished him with praise.
Secondly, during his previous term, Trump had a clear policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of foreign countries. Notably, he referred to Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as “my favorite dictator.” It is expected that Trump will continue this policy and refrain from criticizing regimes on issues of political freedom and human rights, aligning with the regimes’ preferences.
Thirdly, there is an expectation, particularly in the Gulf states, that Trump will adopt a tougher stance toward Iran than his predecessor, Joe Biden. Iran’s growing confidence and that of its proxies, as demonstrated in Hamas’s October 7 attack, are seen by many in the Gulf as linked to the relatively lenient stance that the United States took toward Iran under Biden’s administration.
In addition, Trump is perceived by regional countries as having close relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and, more importantly, considerable influence over him, to the point of being able to impose his views on Netanyahu. Israel’s neighbors hope for a swift end to the war in Gaza, which has increased pressure on them from their citizens and radical elements in the region. They hope Trump will pressure Netanyahu to end the war even before the start of his term.
Saudi Arabia anticipates that a “Trump 2.0” administration will be even more generous than Biden in the “carrots” it offers the kingdom in exchange for normalization with Israel, will be tougher on Iran, and will pressure Israel. Trump’s closeness to key leaders in the region and his influence over Netanyahu—potentially leading to Israeli concessions in line with the kingdom’s expectations, including advancing the two-state solution—also increases the likelihood of renewing and accelerating the normalization process.