Strategic Assessment

Several developments in the region since 2003 have prompted major changes in Iran's strategic posture. The events in Iraq represent the most important development, as the 2003 war effected a dramatic change in Iran's most important neighbor. Iraq currently houses a large and threatening American force, sent there to overthrow a regime that at the time was perceived in the United States as developing weapons of mass destruction and heavily involved in terror. The American threat appears even more ominous when considering that at the end of 2001 the US overthrew another Muslim regime, the Taliban in Afghanistan. The result of the military action in two neighbor states is that Iran is encircled by states connected to the US, some of which are still housing American forces. The signal to Iran was clear: if Iran did not cease developing weapons of mass destruction and promoting terror, it too could be subject to the threat of military action.