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Strategic Assessment

Home Strategic Assessment A Nuclear Iran: The Spur to a Regional Arms Race?

A Nuclear Iran: The Spur to a Regional Arms Race?

Research Forum | October 2012
Amos Yadlin
Avner Golov

Some analysts maintain that Iran's development of a nuclear bomb will not lead to a regional arms race, as Iran's three chief rivals in the region, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, lack the economic and technological capabilities and the necessary motivation to develop nuclear weapons. This conclusion, however, is based on a problematic review of the relevant states and their drive to acquire nuclear weapons once Iran has obtained them. Rather, analysis of these states' strategic logic; their ability to bear the economic burden of a military nuclear program; the technological capability required for developing nuclear weapons; and the political constraints that would influence and perhaps dissuade them from acquiring nuclear weapons suggests that the possibility of a regional arms race is not at all low.


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  • Research

    • Topics
      • Israel and the Global Powers
      • Israel-United States Relations
      • Glazer Israel-China Policy Center
      • Russia
      • Europe
      • Iran and the Shi'ite Axis
      • Iran
      • The Israel–Iran War
      • Lebanon and Hezbollah
      • Syria
      • Yemen and the Houthi Movement
      • Iraq and the Iraqi Shiite Militias
      • Conflict to Agreements
      • Israeli-Palestinian Relations
      • Hamas and the Gaza Strip
      • Peace Agreements and Normalization in the Middle East
      • Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States
      • Turkey
      • Egypt
      • Jordan
      • Israel’s National Security Policy
      • Military and Strategic Affairs
      • Societal Resilience and the Israeli Society
      • Jewish-Arab Relations in Israel
      • Climate, Infrastructure and Energy
      • Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict
      • Cross-Arena Research
      • Data Analytics Center
      • Law and National Security
      • Advanced Technologies and National Security
      • Cognitive Warfare
      • Economics and National Security
    • Projects
      • Preventing the Slide into a One-State Reality
      • Contemporary Antisemitism in the United States
      • Perceptions about Jews and Israel in the Arab-Muslim World and Their Impact on the West
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