Strategic Assessment

This essay examines the process by which intelligence estimates at the national level are prepared and presented in Israel. Unlike Israel, where every intelligence organization presents its own estimate to the government, the United States and the United Kingdom operate a single organization – appointed by the President or the Cabinet – that is responsible for formulating the national intelligence estimate. While such an umbrella organization is not recommended for Israel, Israel would do well to adopt some aspects of the estimate preparation processes in those nations, e.g., the systematic clarification of agreements and disagreements among the intelligence organizations before the estimates are presented to the government. In addition, absent an umbrella organization, the Military Intelligence Directorate in Israel should be left in charge of presenting national intelligence estimates, i.e., in charge of integration and the overall situation estimate. As such, the political echelon would be presented with a full and integrated intelligence estimate as well as a breakdown of the major issues and fundamental disagreements among the respective intelligence organizations.