Publications

The 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025 marked the sharpest escalation to date in the ongoing confrontation between the two states. Despite its relatively short duration, the war had a destabilizing effect on the Islamic Republic due to the success of Israel’s opening strike, the decision of the United States to join the campaign, and the damage sustained by Iran’s critical strategic systems—notably its nuclear program and long-range missile arsenal. Since the end of the war, Iran has engaged in an ongoing process of drawing lessons from the serious gaps revealed in the Islamic Republic’s deterrence and defense capabilities. The Iranian leadership is certainly aware of the need for improvements and adjustments to its national security doctrine; yet for now, this does not appear sufficient to produce a fundamental shift in Iranian strategy. It seems that Iran prefers to make adjustments within the existing framework by finding acceptable solutions to the gaps exposed rather than introducing major changes to its overall strategy. In any event, the new reality in Iran created by the war is characterized by instability, and it is doubtful whether the current status quo can endure for long. This is exacerbated by the growing possibility of a miscalculation between Iran and Israel that would lead to renewed clashes, or high-risk decisions by Iran on both the nuclear issue and on the regional front. This memorandum seeks to examine the lessons that Iran is drawing from the war and its implications in four main areas: the nuclear program, strategic military systems, the regional arena, and the domestic arena—and to assess how the war has influenced Iran’s national security concept. In addition, it includes a set of policy recommendations intended to block, or at least delay, Iran’s efforts to rebuild its strategic capabilities, foremost among them the nuclear program, and the pro-Iranian axis in the region, and to reduce as much as possible the risk of renewed fighting.

The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS), released on December 4, 2025, reshapes the “America First” doctrine in ways that undermine the traditional conception of US hegemony. Rather than value-based leadership of the democratic-liberal camp, it emphasizes recognition of states’ nationalism and non-interference in their internal affairs.

Israel must prepare for a reality where support is a controversial issue in both parties in Congress