Many regard 2027 as the year in which the Chinese military could attack Taiwan—especially after former CIA Director William Burns said in 2023 that “as a matter of intelligence, we know that he [Xi Jinping] has instructed the People’s Liberation Army to be ready by 2027 to conduct a successful invasion of Taiwan.” Western research institutes, including Brookings, have used 2027 as a reference point in their analyses. Likewise, in regional assessments by countries close to China and Taiwan—such as Japan and India—2027 repeatedly...
International experience shows that deploying a stabilizing force as proposed in President Trump’s 20-point plan for the Gaza Strip requires a clear mandate, dedicated training, and close coordination among all the actors involved, while contending with complex cultural and operational challenges—especially in a densely populated, hostile, and violent civilian environment. Mission success depends on a strong mandate under Chapter VII of the UN Charter or similar to, comprehensive force training, and limiting the number of...
The liberal world order faces a dual challenge: The risk of high-intensity interstate war has increased, while the US security umbrella over its allies has been undermined. For Israel, the implications of these changes are particularly evident, as they intensify the threats facing it. At the same time, they could also potentially reduce these threats. The same logic applies to capabilities: Transformations in the world order challenge Israel’s capabilities, but some could also strengthen them. Increased threats are reflected in the...
The withdrawal of climate science funding by the American government leaves a serious data gap that must be filled quickly. China is the country that, despite lacking territorial presence in the Arctic, is most able to fill this gap in Arctic research, particularly with regard to the region’s accelerated warming. This ability is not because China is the next most capable country, but rather because it is the only nation with the sheer resources to replace the American commitment.
The events of October 7, 2023, not only shook Israel’s national security but also undermined public trust in state institutions, especially the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), to an unprecedented degree. It was in this context that the northern campaign developed—initially secondary in the strategic agenda but gradually taking a central place in public consciousness. For many, the approach toward fighting Hezbollah—ranging from containment and restraint to significant escalation—was seen as an ongoing test of the system’s ability to...
This article sets out an integrated “roadmap”—security, governance, economic, and social—for reshaping the reality in the Gaza Strip specifically and the Palestinian arena in general. A return to the situation that prevailed before October 2023 is impossible; there is a need to accelerate the positive momentum to avoid stalling the process and to prevent Hamas from reestablishing itself in the Gaza Strip. Therefore, a new organizing concept is required. The proposed concept combines: (1) responses to Israel’s essential security...
Israel has recently emerged as a major flash point within the Republican coalition, which has otherwise been relatively unified behind President Trump. Increasingly, voices within the party are questioning whether continued support for Israel is compatible with an “America First” foreign policy. In some prominent cases, the argument over United States policy toward Israel has intersected with old-school antisemitic tropes and religious trends in the Christian right, increasing concerns among American Jews. President Trump’s dominance...
One year after the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, the Lebanese arena is undergoing changes. These changes are reflected both in the internal balance of power between Lebanon’s new leadership and Hezbollah, as well as in the balance of power between the organization and the IDF, which has not relented and continues to weaken it. However, this opportunity for change is overshadowed by Hezbollah’s determination to recover and by the difficulties facing the Lebanese government, which remains weak as it attempts to compel the...
On December 8, the anniversary of the fall of the Assad regime and the rise of the transitional government led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa was commemorated. Despite his jihadi past, al-Sharaa seeks to present himself as a national, pragmatic, and statesmanlike leader. Thus far, the transitional government has advanced stabilization measures and rapid political procedures, including the establishment of a technocratic government and a temporary parliament, as well as an attempt to rebuild the Syrian army. While al-Sharaa has achieved...
Iran is embroiled in an ongoing crisis with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as Iran does not allow it to inspect the sites struck during the 12-day war with Israel. It is also locked in a standoff with the United States, as Tehran refuses to renew negotiations—despite mediation efforts mainly by actors from the Gulf states—so long as the demand for zero enrichment remains in place. Inside Iran, too, a debate over negotiations is underway; for now, the Supreme Leader Khamenei has determined that the Trump administration...
The commemoration of Western holidays and pre-Islamic traditions in Iran, such as Halloween and Cyrus the Great Day, has recently sparked a public debate among conservative circles, who see these practices as a threat to the values of the Islamic Revolution and to religious faith, and those who believe that they reflect processes of change among the younger generation that must be accepted. As this debate unfolds, the authorities in Tehran are attempting to capitalize on Iranian nationalism, which swelled during Iran’s 12-day war...
The 70-year diplomatic relationship between Iran and Thailand has seen ups and downs in recent years. However, Iran’s desire to expand its influence over Thailand’s Shiite population and exploit it for its own interests had not changed over time. In the past year, these efforts have intensified significantly. This paper examines the mechanisms Iran employs to entrench its control over Shiite religious and educational institutions in Thailand, among them sending religious scholars from Iran to ensure that these institutions follow...
