Strategic Assessment

The war in Syria is nearly over. While the restoration of stability and peacemaking in the country remain remote - if at all viable - objectives, the fighting on the battlefield has been decided and Bashar al-Assad has ended with the upper hand. This victory was handed to Bashar thanks to the recruitment of Tehran and Moscow to fight alongside him, coupled with the inertia to the point of inaction demonstrated by the West, primarily the United States, regarding the crisis in Syria. At the same time, this victory is also an outcome of the domestic reality in Syria – on the one hand, the failure of the rebels in combating the Syrian regime, and on the other hand, Bashar’s political acumen and survival skills, and the support that the regime and the country’s institutions received from the broad coalition of social and economic powers from within the Syrian population. Bashar did not wage this battle for survival only in order to become a puppet ruler manipulated by others, and one can assume that to the extent that he can control matters, he will strive to once again become the sole decision maker regarding the future of his regime and his country.