Strategic Assessment

This article analyzes the complex challenge embodied in the Lebanese city of Tripoli, where tensions latent in the dual nature of the city have risen to the surface in the wake of the civil war in Syria. Tripoli’s historical connection to Syria clashes with the rules of the game in Lebanon and creates a highly delicate and volatile religious and sectarian dynamic that impacts on the rest of the country. In addition, in light of developments in the Middle East, the threat of Salafist Islam – particularly the Islamic State organization – places local events in another context. The October 2014 clashes between Sunnis and Alawites in Tripoli, another link in a long chain of violent events, dramatized the destructive potential in the city. Although to date the violence has subsided, it underscores that Lebanon must contend with concrete dangers presented by the fabric of its society in order to ensure the nation’s stability.