Strategic Assessment
If and when Iran acquires a nuclear capability, should Israel revise and perhaps even terminate its policy of nuclear ambiguity and instead adopt a policy of explicit nuclear deterrence? The author argues that in a scenario in which Iran has nuclear capabilities, Israel must maintain its policy of ambiguity. The essay first deals with the issue of explicit nuclear deterrence, and then contends that the advantages of ambiguity will remain valid “the day after” Iran’s nuclearization. Relying on the American nuclear umbrella is preferable to abrogating the policy of ambiguity, despite the concern stemming from the extent of America’s commitment to Israel. The proof of ambiguity’s success over the past fifty years lies in the history of the region, and even in the face of a nuclear Iran it does not seem that revoking the policy would benefit Israel.