Strategic Assessment

While bolstering Russia’s perception of a disintegrating European Union and transatlantic alliance, the Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom and Donald Trump’s electoral upset in the United States reactivated Central and Eastern Europe’s fears of imminent security threats from Moscow. Such a situation creates fertile ground for hazardous miscalculations on both sides and increases the risk of a NATO-Russia confrontation on European soil. Meanwhile Poland and the Baltic states are monitoring the buildup of Russia’s military presence on Israel’s border with Syria and may seek intensified dialogue with Israel on the challenges posed by Russia’s power projection into both areas.