Strategic Assessment

Since the first announcement in August 2002 that Iran was constructing a heavy water production facility at Arak, there has been little doubt in the minds of many people that Iran has embarked on a plutonium route for the production of fissile materials for military use. With the approaching completion of the IR-40 heavy water natural uranium reactor at Arak, this scenario has commanded more public attention. The potential for using plutonium in the core of a nuclear explosive device is serious, and indeed, this project has proceeded in blatant disregard of Security Council resolutions. Although the estimated date of completion of this route is not imminent, the project is nevertheless nearing a so-called critical point. This paper describes the general processes involved in the production of plutonium, and then considers the potential of the Iranian plutonium program, an estimated timeline and other aspects of the program, and prospects for the future.