The NPT and Nuclear Proliferation: Matching Expectations to Current Realities

There is widespread agreement in the international community today that the global nuclear non-proliferation regime faces a serious challenge: strong suspicions of military nuclear development in non-nuclear weapons states (NNWS) that are parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The centerpiece of the nonproliferation regime, the NPT, has come under criticism that it is ill-equipped to grapple effectively with the clandestine military nuclear programs of determined proliferators. Such deficiencies became apparent following the 1991 Gulf War with the case of Iraq, and led to attempts to strengthen the verification capabilities of the IAEA. But today the examples of North Korea and Iran underscore that a determined proliferator can still significantly advance its nuclear program while maintaining its status as party to the NPT.