Strategic Assessment

The Islamic Republic is in the midst of a profound struggle between the Rouhani government and its conservative rivals. The President is striving, gradually and cautiously, to fulfill his promises to his voters, in particular, to improve the economic situation and reduce government involvement in ordinary civilian life. In response, the conservative establishment is attempting to block some of the initiatives that it considers a threat to regime stability and to the values of the revolution. Overall, the regime is facing a double paradox. Lifting the sanctions as part of a permanent settlement with the West could improve the economic situation, but it could also increase Iran’s exposure to Western influences and strengthen the middle class, which is considered a key agent of change. The President’s success could satisfy the desires of the public, but it could also increase the expectation for civil reforms and strengthen Rouhani’s standing at the expense of the Supreme Leader.