Strategic Assessment

This article analyzes the political and military contours of a future conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, and explores the tension that exists between two levels of analysis: the underlying fundamental political and military data, and the distinct context that is liable to result in escalation. The underlying political and military data reveal that the realistic strategic successes that both sides are likely to achieve in the conflict are limited, and that in an all-out confrontation, both sides will pay a heavy price. These are significant considerations that discourage the outbreak of hostilities, and if a conflict does occur, encourage the framework of a limited conflict. However, the current situation involves the emergence of unusual threats, such as the production of precise missiles in Lebanon and the future deployment of high quality Iranian weapons in Syria. In the distinct context of preventing these threats, there is justification for paying the price of a conflict, which is liable to include the Syrian theater and the Russia factor.