Strategic Assessment

At the end of the week in which the IDF pulled out from Lebanon, Hizbullah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah made a fiery speech before an enthusiastic crowd in the town of Bint Jubayl. His statements, and the gathering itself, conveyed a feeling of triumph over Israel, whose military advantages had not availed it in its struggle against popular forces. The speech was interspersed with threats against Israel, particularly against its northern residents who, according to the speaker, are now facing an unknown future. Since the IDF withdrawal from Lebanon, Syrian-Israeli and Lebanese-Israeli relations have in effect moved to a new footing which is in the process of taking shape, and is accompanied by numerous question marks, not least of which is the death of President Hafiz al-Assad. The stability of the region or, alternatively, the developments likely to impel Israel to implement the deterrent threats that attended the withdrawal will be significant to the calm and wellbeing of Galilee.