Strategic Assessment

In recent years, and especially since the IDF withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000, the future of the Lebanese organization Hizbollah and its very raison d’etre in the absence of the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon has been widely debated. This issue has engaged not only those in the local and regional surroundings, but also the Hizbollah leadership itself. For its part, Hizbollah has demonstrated its capability of adjusting the organization’s character and activity to the changing reality, evolving in light of September 11, 2001, the war in Afghanistan, and the overthrow of the Iraqi regime. Currently it faces a new challenge in the form of mounting Lebanese and international pressure on Syria, one of its principal patrons. This pressure has prompted Hizbollah to secure its position, together with Syria and the pro-Syrian establishment, in the internal Lebanese scene and consolidate its role as an armed force in Lebanon. The specific possibility of Hizbollah’s future integration in the Lebanese army has become a more urgent issue on the political and media agenda in Lebanon since the assassination of the former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri on February 14.