Strategic Assessment

The semblance of stability in Iraq throughout the spring of 2009 and anticipation of the pending withdrawal of US combat forces have created a tendency among Americans to label the Iraq War a “victory.” Such thinking overlooks the sectarian chaos of 2006 and 2007 and downplays the fact that Iraq’s explosive internal disputes are largely held in check by the immediate presence of US combat power. This essay conveys a more sober assessment and contends that any precipitous withdrawal of US combat power will greatly reduce US leverage in Iraq and risk a return to the sectarian strife of 2006 simply because few of Iraq’s serious internal conflicts have been resolved.