Strategic Assessment

The evacuation of communities in times of violent conflict is an issue that in recent years has commanded much attention in Israel, both among the general public and the defense establishment. This article reviews the current approaches and plans relating to initiated evacuation of populations, while focusing on the relevant political considerations and the decision making processes at the national level. It also addresses plans for both the population that evacuates independently and the population that remains in bomb shelters. The key finding is that in the absence of a binding national policy on the subject of evacuations, the agencies charged with carrying out evacuations are forced to act without any clear directives and with insufficient coordination among themselves. This situation is liable to lead to a delayed decision on initiating an evacuation, while portions of the population are already evacuating on their own. Instead, there should be a national framework that expands the population designated for evacuation from communities in the gravest danger, gives high priority to weak sectors, and significantly reinforces social resilience mechanisms in the weaker municipalities under moderate-to-high risk.