Strategic Assessment

This paper examines Israel’s evolving nuclear strategy, with particular reference to origins, core assumptions (still mostly implicit), and probable outcomes. Key questions considered are the longer term risks of continued nuclear ambiguity, prospects for further regional nuclear proliferation, expectations for rational and irrational behavior among pertinent regional decision makers, and the effects of a new Cold War between Russia and the United States. These questions point to the overarching complexity of strategic interactions in the Middle East, and to plausible synergies between Israel’s strategic policies and anticipated enemy reactions. Emphasizing the need to advance beyond deliberate nuclear ambiguity, the article argues for a coherent and codified national strategic doctrine, a comprehensive master plan guided by analytic, rather than political, standards of judgment.