Strategic Assessment

The accomplishments of the rebels in Syria since the summer of 2014 have reignited questions regarding Bashar al-Assad’s ability to remain in power, and led many to conclude that only a miracle could save him. Such a miracle took place in September 2015, when Russian forces landed on Syrian soil, accompanied by members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, with the aim of saving the Assad regime. Their arrival occurred against a background of reports regarding a change in the position of Turkey and Saudi Arabia, as well as the United States, on the Syrian question. The war in Syria, however, has a dynamic of its own, and the recent Russian-Iranian involvement, which is still extremely curtailed, may prove to be a recipe for continued fighting in the country. Moreover, any limited accomplishments via Russian and Iranian protection that preserve Bashar’s rule over approximately one quarter of Syrian territory will further entrench the division of Syria between Assad and his opponents.