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May 28, 2015, Institute for National Security Studies
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The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) analyzes issues relating to Israel’s national security. Research conducted at INSS is policy-oriented and intended to serve decision makers in Israel, as well as the general public. With the establishment of the new government and in consideration of the multiple challenges facing Israel at different levels of national security, INSS has prepared a set of recommendations designed to help the government navigate the key strategic issues before it.
This paper offers a concise review of the leading issues Israel must deal with, as well as the “top 20” policy recommendations to the new government formulated by the INSS research staff. The recommendations refer to regional, international, and internal levels of Israeli national security policy and focus primarily on matters that must be attended to immediately as the foundation for future action
A. Healing Israel-US Relatio
The current crisis between Jerusalem and Washington reflects the diverging perspectives of the two administrations regarding the central challenges in the Middle East and how to respond to them. Moreover, how the new government will attend to the bilateral relations has implications for Israel's long term interests, as well as its regional and international standing. Therefore, we recommend adopting the predominant goal of repairing relations and putting them back on track, reaching agreement on joint challenges, and acting in mutually considerate fashion toward the interests of the other side, in order to deal jointly with the common challenges facing the two countries.
4. Agree with heads of the American administration on a mutual halt to intervention in the internal political processes of both countries. In addition, consideration should be given to the appointment of a new ambassador to the United States, signaling a “new page” to senior levels in the administration.
B. Curbing Iranian Influence in the Middle East
It appears that the emerging agreement on the nuclear issue between Iran and the world powers cannot be stopped. Now is the time to focus efforts on establishing an effective supervision-verification mechanism for holding Iran to its commitments to the agreement, and developing a response in the event Iran breaches the agreement. It is essential to achieve regional and international agreement on preventing Iran's abuse of the nuclear agreement (for example, by funneling unfrozen money to terror elements and destabilizing forces across the Middle East, or by threatening that any international pressure exerted on it would constitute a breach of agreement and thus legitimize its surge toward achieving a military nuclear capability). Moreover, it is essential that Israel not be the party accused of torpedoing negotiations should they be halted.
7. Prepare both militarily and on the civilian front for the possibility of a flare-up in the north – a military confrontation with Hizbollah, backed by Iran, on the Golan Heights and in Lebanon – subject to developments in Syria.
C. Pursuing a Political Initiative for the Palestinian Arena
We believe that a solution in the form of a permanent arrangement that puts an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and resolves the mutual demands of the parties is not achievable in the near future. However, this political deadlock creates a grave problem for Israel, since it weakens the legitimacy of its political and military actions. For the sake of strengthening Israel's position as a democratic, responsible, and secure state with recognized borders and a Jewish majority that enjoys international recognition as a state of equal standing in the international community, the following is required:
10. Prepare – concurrently – for an additional round of escalation with Hamas. The IDF must present recommendations for a different course of military action than in the previous rounds of the conflict. Such action must enable the long term neutralization, to the degree possible, of terror organizations' motivation to renew warfare against Israel, and prevent Hamas' ability to restore military capabilities over time. At the same time a comprehensive response must be developed to the increasing trend of terror (mainly on the part of lone individuals) in the West Bank, in order to prevent deterioration into a sweeping outbreak of violence in the region.
D. Improving Israel's International Standing and its Relations with the International Community
Israel must formulate a proactive policy in the face of the intensifying diplomatic, public, and legal campaign waged against it in the international arena based on the efforts to delegitimize Israel and impose boycotts, otherwise known as the Boycott, Divestment and Sanction (BDS) movement.
13. Challenge the international community – particularly France, which intends to propose an initiative for an UN Security Council resolution in determining the parameters for solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – through an Israeli motion submitted to the Security Council regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Israeli draft resolution would express Israel's vital needs, headed by non-violation of its security and citizens, recognition of Israel as the national home of the Jewish people, and recognition of Palestine (once it is established) as the national home of the Palestinian people. In addition, the resolution must express consideration for conditions that have come about in the conflict arena over the past 50 years.
E. Promoting Regional Cooperation
The multi-system shockwaves in the Arab world in recent years have led to the overthrow of five regimes (including in Iraq, where the regime was toppled through American intervention). Presumably the Assad regime in Syria will likewise not return to the status it enjoyed before the outbreak of the civil war. Following the change in the regional balance of power, the increased level of security threats to countries in the region, and Iran's increasing involvement in the region, there is an overlap of interests between Israel and the pragmatic Arab states – despite the political deadlock between Israel and the Palestinians. Accordingly:
16. Increase humanitarian support for stricken population groups in Syria and for refugees who have fled the regions of fighting. At the same time identify organizations and players with the potential to fulfill a positive role in shaping a post-Assad Syria and invest resources in creating understandings with those groups while assisting them.
F. Attending to the Economy and National Security Infrastructures
The economy on all levels constitutes a central tier of Israel's national security policy. A stable mechanism is needed for the process of determining the security budget. Moreover, it is necessary to attend to the issue of energy as a vital Israeli asset and as a resource with strategic implications for its regional status. A further important aspect of Israel's power is the civilian front and its functional capability in anticipated future clashes with its enemies.