Publications

The only episode in 2013 that came close to being an acute threat to the Israeli civilian front involved the tension between Washington and Damascus concerning the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Today, even if the fate of the chemical arsenal in Syria remains unclear, the episode highlighted one important lesson about the complexity and volatility of the risks facing the Israeli home front: in the conflict ridden and frequently changing Middle East, the home front can suddenly find itself facing an unanticipated conflagration in unforeseen circumstances from an unexpected direction. While for many years Israel perceived itself as challenged by a military threat from non-state or semi-state entities led by Hizbollah and Hamas, the challenge is now proving to be more diverse and points to possible future surprising directions. The firm lesson that emerges, therefore, though not entirely new, prompts the requisite action items. In other words, as it undertakes preparedness for an emergency, the home front must be ready to provide an immediate and appropriate response to a broad range of threats from different directions. This means that it must attend to the surprise factor that is often associated with disaster and crisis events.