Publications

At the core of the strategic assessment for 2020 stands the tension between Israel’s evident strength and its success in various fields, and the possibility that this positive state of affairs will prove temporary and fragile. This tension stems from a series of factors that in the coming year could lead to a large-scale conflict and even to war, and involves Israel’s approach to a series of substantive national security challenges: Iran’s increasing audacity – on the nuclear issue, in its efforts at force buildup in Syria and other arenas, and in its efforts to station operational capabilities against Israel; Hezbollah’s efforts to achieve large-scale precision attack capabilities; and Hamas’s efforts to ease the pressure on Gaza and influence the parameters for an arrangement with Israel. The targeted killing of Iranian Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani by the United States in early 2020 lends added weight to the assessment regarding the potential for escalation. The event creates a new context and might become a strategic turning point. These and other challenges are unfolding against the backdrop of an ongoing political crisis in Israel and strategic competition between the world powers, which in turn generates functional difficulties in the international system. The unequivocal conclusion from these developments is the need for Israel to formulate a new strategy.