An Israel-Iran Balance of Nuclear Deterrence: Seeds of Instability

The following essay takes as its starting point the assumption that efforts to contain the Iranian nuclear effort will fail and Iran will eventually acquire a nuclear weapons capability. This is not to suggest that this development is unavoidable. In fact, there is still a good chance that international efforts to contain the Iranian project (either diplomatic or through sanctions, or possibly even military action) might ultimately succeed, or at least keep Iran at a low level of nuclear development for a long time. However, an analysis of the possible consequences of Iran’s becoming a nuclear state can lead to several policy-oriented conclusions regarding different steps that could be taken to minimize the dangers resulting from such nuclearization.