As of late 2012, only four Arab governments had actually been overthrown, and the impact of those changes on regional balances remained fairly modest. However, because of the apparent vulnerability of regimes in many other parts of the region, and particularly because of the explosion of “identity politics” in recent years, the potential for far more dramatic change, though not yet realized, remains in place. Depending on the outcomes of ongoing and future challenges to regimes in other Arab states, especially Syria, and...
Comments by former Mossad head Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Meir Dagan decrying an Israeli military action against Iran, and reports that the Prime Minister and Defense Minister have already decided to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, have prompted criticism of senior officials who express their opinion on the subject. The “discourse” that has emerged in the wake of the reports has been described as irresponsible and as harming state security, and few have disagreed with this assessment. Subsequently a counter-campaign ensued, with background...
Due to the variety of interests that it represents, the Iraqi government was unable to devise a formula that would allow an American military presence after January 2012. It refused to grant legal immunity to US forces, even though Iraqi military leaders supported a continued US presence in order for Iraq to remain on its feet. Over the past weekend both the US and Iraqi heads of state confirmed that the withdrawal of US troops will take place as planned, and by Christmas no American forces will remain in the country. Iraqi Prime...
One of the main challenges for the new Iraqi government, if and when it is established, will be to build a military that is trained and equipped, can cope with internal instability in the short term, and be a source of regional stability in the long term. Given the challenges facing the Iraqi state, an American-Iraqi agreement must regulate security relations between the countries in a way that in the future allows Iraq to offset Iran’s and Turkey’s strength, without being a threat to Iraq’s weaker neighbors.
The importance of the recent elections in Iraq cannot be overstated. Even if their legitimacy was challenged by the disqualification of candidates, bribery, arrests, and even murders, the very fact that elections took place is significant and, the results will largely determine the character of the state during and after the withdrawal of the American forces. Yet despite the inherent importance in going to the polls, how the political forces will divvy up the loot is of at least equal significance. The process of putting together a...
The book, which continues the annual Strategic Balance series, includes thirteen analytical essays written by INSS researchers. The focus is on developments in the internal, regional, and internaional arenas that shape Israel’s strategic environment and the strategic options before it. Special emphasis lies on the Middle East as it adjusts to a new US administration and a newly-elected Israeli government.
So far the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq has proceeded on schedule. At the same time, the uncertainty over whether elections will be held on time, the probability of heightened motivation to launch strategic terrorist attacks around the scheduled date for elections, Kurdish-Arab volatility, and external constraints such as more US soldiers in Afghanistan are liable to cause a situation whereby the continued withdrawal of forces at the present rate would challenge the relative stability achieved in Iraq over the last two...
In recent years the phenomenon of war has been commonly divided into symmetrical warfare and asymmetrical warfare. Notwithstanding new semantics, however, there is nothing new about this division, which represents the two principal interrelated components of war and therefore demands ongoing professional study. Confrontations between countries are liable to develop into symmetrical conventional wars, and at the same time or in their wake, a confrontation with asymmetrical properties can ensue. The transition from fighting a...
As part of the attempt to jumpstart Israeli-Palestinian discussions, the American administration has in recent months expended significant effort on persuading different Arab nations, headed by the Gulf states, to make certain gestures towards Israel. While in geopolitical terms the Arab-Israeli arena and the Persian Gulf arena are separate, the Persian Gulf states are nonetheless directly or indirectly involved in the Arab-Israeli conflict and are influenced by Israeli-Palestinian relations.
In light of the redeployment of the American forces and despite the current tensions with Syria, Iraq is taking measured steps in order to reintegrate into the Arab world. In this context, Egypt recently named an ambassador to Baghdad, while Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia have signaled that they will post ambassadors to Baghdad when the security situation is stabilized. It is not inconceivable that this willingness on the part of Arab nations to expand diplomatic relations with Baghdad and thereby strengthen their interests there is...
The result of the July 25 regional parliamentary and presidential elections in the Kurdish autonomous region is a significant landmark in the history of the Kurds and Kurdistan. The coalition’s Kurdistani List, composed of the two ruling parties in the autonomous region (the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Masoud Barzani, president of the region, and Nechirvan Barzani, his prime minister; and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), led by Jalal Talabani, president of Iraq), suffered a serious blow but retained a majority in...
The book includes ten analytical essays written by INSS researchers that dwell on Israel’s strategic environment in the period under review. The ongoing challenges represented by the Palestinian issue and the Iranian nuclear program are well documented, as well as developments elsewhere in the Arab and Muslim world and in Israel.
