Over the past two weeks, Israel has been enmeshed in conflict precipitated by kidnappings in the south and in the north. Those two tactical events have deteriorated into fighting with strategic consequences. The tactical successes of Hamas and Hizbullah have exposed Israel to extortion and it may well have to pay some price for its failures and for the return of the kidnapped soldiers. In this situation, Israel’s objective is to turn tactical setbacks into strategic outcomes whose gains outweigh the losses. Understanding the...
The confrontation between Israel and Hizbullah that has unfolded since the abduction of two soldiers on July 12 has prompted considerable speculation about future Syrian policy. One school of thought argues that Syria under President Bashar al-Asad will not stop at the brink and will actively support Hizbullah. However, the regime’s behavior in this confrontation suggests that a rational calculation of vital interests will prompt Asad to adopt a pragmatic stance.
Hizbullah can be accurately described as at a crossroads ever since the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces from southern Lebanon in 2000, and even more so since the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon in 2005. Both events sharpened the choice between two paths that the movement has tried to follow since its inception: the Lebanese path, embodied in its political-parliamentary activity, and the regional/universal Islamist path, expressed in independent military action. Absent a decisive test of force between the movement and...
The Hizbullah operation that resulted in the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers and the death of eight others has ignited a major confrontation between that organization and Israel. Unlike previous clashes in recent years, in which it could be expected that the clash would be short-lived because of the interest of both sides preventing escalation and returning to acceptable rules of the game, the provocation and its consequences are too great this time to allow Israel to return to the status quo ante. That would signal to Hizbullah...
Part I: Middle East Strategic Assessment
Introduction
The International Theater
Chapter 1
Political Trends in the Middle East: The Triumph of Identity over Democracy / Mark A. Heller
Chapter 2
US Policy in the Greater Middle East: A Rendezvous with Reality? / Eran Lerman
Centrality and Controversy
The Iraqi Crucible
Elsewhere in the War on Terror
The Palestinian and Israeli Arenas
Supporting Siniora: Hizbollah, Syria, and the Aftermath of the War
The Ultimate Challenge: Iran...
