The essay that follows examines the implications of Iran’s achievement of a nuclear weapons capability for arms control and non-proliferation efforts and initiatives in the nuclear realm.
Iran has been proceeding steadily on its quest for a nuclear weapons capability, and as little seems to motivate it towards abandoning its ambitions, it will likely get there, possibly at the turn of the present decade. Although the international community has been taking coercive action, mainly by economic – fiscal, monetary, and trade – sanctions, it has not been successful in persuading Iran to abandon its program or at least suspend it. True, there have been reports that the sanctions have a perceptible effect on the Iranian...
This collection of essays on a nuclear Iran complements a comprehensive monograph published in early 2007 by the Institute for National Security Studies entitled A Nuclear Iran: What Does it Mean, and What Can be Done. The monograph examined ways and prospects for stopping Iran from achieving a nuclear capability. Its principal focus, however, was the various implications of an Iran in possession of nuclear weapons and an analysis of ways to grapple with this potential situation.
The five essays that comprise Israel and a Nuclear Iran: Implications for Arms Control, Deterrence, and Defense examine the principal challenges for Israel associated with Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. The essays explore Iran’s potential deployment of a nuclear capability; the implications of a nuclear empowered Iran with regard to arms control and non-proliferation efforts in the nuclear realm; the difficulty of fostering a stable Israel-Iran nuclear relationship; the critical role of missile defense; and a...
On May 26, 2008 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) circulated a technical and factual report on Iran, devoid almost entirely of political overtones. The IAEA report gives prominence to the major issue of the day – Iran’s unrelenting progress in its uranium enrichment program – but also highlights an additional serious issue of concern: Iran’s secret weapons development activities. The unprecedented level of concern included in the report reflects and furthers tendencies that first emerged last February, when...
On April 24, US officials briefed lawmakers on Syria’s covert nuclear reactor. They explained their “high confidence” that what was destroyed last September in Syria was in fact a nuclear reactor for the production of plutonium, and that it was built with the long-term and sustained assistance of North Korea. In contrast to this certainty, a central aspect of their estimate regarding Syria’s nuclear plans adopted a vaguer tone: when asked whether the material to be produced by the reactor would be used in a...
The December 2007 NIE report still basically reflects the American intelligence community’s assessment of the Iranian nuclear program. However, the harsh criticism directed against it, the declarations of the Administration and of other government following the report’s publication to the effect that their approach to the Iranian threat had not changed, the admission of the National Intelligence Council’s Chairman that the formulation of the document could have been different, and the more balanced report of the...
On February 4, Iran launched a sounding rocket into space. The launch was part of the inauguration of the Iranian Space Center and received extensive coverage in the Iranian media, which focused on Iran’s intention this summer to launch by its own means a satellite wholly developed by Iranian industry.
The newest and much-anticipated International Atomic Energy Agency report on safeguards activities in Iran was sent to the IAEA Member States on February 22, 2008 and almost immediately leaked to the press. As usual, no one was completely satisfied by it but everyone could find in it something that upholds his or her particular point of view. And as usual, the most important part of the report – that dealing with Iran’s ongoing uranium enrichment program, with the potential to provide the material for a nuclear explosive device...
The car bomb in Damascus that ended the life of Imad Mughniya also put an end to the world-wide manhunt lasting over two decades for the person responsible for the deaths of hundred of citizens of many countries. Following the disappearance from the scene of someone who was justifiably labeled an international terrorist, the question arises whether his liquidation marks a turning point in the war on international terrorism.
The November 15, 2007 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report to its Board of Governors and to the Security Council produced two extreme reactions among those who are most concerned with Iran’s nuclear project: dismay among those who foresee a possible Iranian nuclear weapon in the foreseeable future if nothing is done to block it, and joy among the Iranians who see themselves vindicated by this report. However, this report was not a surprise, since it continued a troublesome IAEA trend of diverting attention...
At the beginning of December 2007, the National Intelligence Council, the supreme body of the American intelligence community, released a reappraisal of Iran’s nuclear intentions and capabilities. The document, a non-classified summary of a detailed and classified analysis on the subject, states that Iran halted its secret nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003 and has yet to restart it. The summary also comes to the conclusion that Iran is less intent on developing nuclear weapons than was previously thought. On the other...
