The recent upsurge in violent incidents has been accompanied by predictions by Israeli politicians and security officials that another round of violence is certain to erupt, either before or immediately after the Israeli disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank, and that it may well be even more severe than those that preceded it. According to this deterministic school of thought, a third intifada is inevitable and nothing can be done to prevent it. However, a closer examination of the common interests of the dominant...
The Middle East Strategic Balance 2004-2005 Table of Contents Introduction Part I: Middle East Strategic Assessment Chapter 1 The Middle East: Still on the Brink of a New Era / Mark A. Heller External Penetration and Pressure for Change Regional Ramifications Future Directions Chapter 2 The Ongoing Iraqi Crisis / Ephraim Kam The Role of the...
The institutionalization of Fatah mirrors the evolution of the PLO and the Palestinian national cause generally. Understanding the factors that have influenced Fatah’s politics of violence, and its political path – and the balance between the two – help to explain the political history of the Middle East in recent decades. This book documents Fatah’s rise to prominence within the variegated Palestinian national movement through a detailed analysis of the organization’s evolution – from its inception in 1959, through the climactic...
In a farewell newspaper interview last week, outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Lt-Gen Moshe Yaalon predicted that the Israeli disengagement from Gaza, if not accompanied by some ongoing political initiative, will be followed by another violent stage in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Yaalon calls this next stage “the second war of terror.ג”
The Central Elections Committee of the Palestinian Authority has informed Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), the president of the PA, that it cannot carry out the elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) as scheduled on 17 July. The reason, according to the CEC, is that it needs at least two months following ratification of the new elections law to make proper arrangements. That law has passed its third reading in parliament but has not yet been signed by Abu Mazen and therefore has not gone into effect. But beyond the...
A major political-strategic objective of Hamas since its creation has been to institutionalize itself as an alternative to Fatah as the dominant force, first in the PLO and thereafter in the Palestinian Authority, as well. As an intermediate goal, Hamas leaders during the first intifada sought to be incorporated into the PLO, on condition that they be given 40% representation in PLO institutions. That demand was grounded in the degree of support among the population in the West Bank and Gaza claimed by the movement’s leaders,...
On March 17, Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and several smaller Palestinian organizations agreed in Cairo to extend the current “lull” (tahdi’a) in military operations until the end of 2005 and to implement a series of reforms in Palestinian political institutions. This agreement constitutes a landmark in the current phase of Israeli-Palestinian relationships as well as in internal Palestinian politics.
The one-day meeting held in London on March 1 to mobilize global support for the Palestinian Authority was a fallback position for the participants, many of whom would have much preferred a full-blown international conference to make peace between Israel and the Palestinians. But when British Prime Minister Tony Blair traveled to Washington immediately after the reelection of George W. Bush in November, it was made clear to him that the American administration opposed such an ambitious venture as long as the conditions were not yet...
Following the Sharm al-Shaykh summit and the declaration of a cessation of violence issued by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, the Government of Israel decided to release 500 Palestinian prisoners. For the time being, the release is restricted to prisoners who have not killed or assisted in the killing of Israelis and who have already served at least two-thirds of their sentence. But the Government also signaled its intention to consider further releases in the future. This decision was intended to be a gesture to...
The Arab-Israeli peace process has witnessed any number of summit meetings. Some of these produced concrete results; others, like the Casablanca economic summit in 1994 and the “anti-terrorism” summit in Sharm al-Shaykh in March 1996 were more fluff than substance. The failure of the Camp David summit in July 2000 and the subsequent descent into four years of violence have left both protagonists and observers wary of summit diplomacy, let alone “historic” breakthroughs. Nevertheless, this past week witnessed...
In the January 9 election to succeed Yasir Arafat as Chairman of the Palestinian Authority (PA), Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) emerged with a majority of 62%. The runner-up, with about 20%, was Dr. Mustapha Barghouti, representing the leftist forces and those who support continuation of the “armed intifada.” Other candidates failed to gain more than single-digit support. About 75% of registered voters cast ballots.
Critics of American foreign policy frequently argue that the terrorism inflicted by al-Qaeda and its affiliates on the US in particular and the west in general is mainly a result of flawed American policy towards Israel. In addition, politicians and officials in various countries have asserted that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the root cause of the terrorism and that removing this cause would make it possible to end the confrontation between “global jihad” and the rest of the world.
