The concept of a “year of decision” has become a cliche, and should not be used to describe 2013. Nevertheless, a very challenging spring and summer await Israel in 2013: important and fateful processes have reached a stage in which courageous decisions are needed to change negative trends. The Iranian nuclear weapons program, the stability of the peace treaties, the internal struggle in Syria, and renewal of the political process with the Palestinians require a precise and measured combination of a cautious policy that...
Over the course of 2012, the public debate on the possibility of independent military action against Iranian nuclear installations intensified, reaching unprecedented proportions. This article will describe how the public debate on a possible Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities developed, and then analyze its impact on Israeli public opinion. It will also explain how this issue differs qualitatively from other issues in security/operational and political terms, and why this has prompted such a heated public discussion.
Many decision makers and analysts in Israel and around the world contend that Iran’s attainment of a military nuclear capability will increase nuclear weapons proliferation in the Middle East and create a multi-polar nuclear system in the region. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt are considered the main candidates to go nuclear in order to balance Iran’s nuclear power. This article will test this argument primarily from the perspective of the motivations and capabilities that may spur these countries to develop a nuclear...
This article will analyze whether there are any signs of a new game with Iran, or whether what we have witnessed over the past year is basically a repeat of what we have seen so many times before, and as such is simply “more of the same.” The article will present and analyze these alternative interpretations of international efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions over the past year, beginning with the release of the IAEA report on Iran in early November 2011.
In his second term, the United States President will have to chart a compromise between two major courses of action in the Middle East. There will be much temptation in the US administration to maintain the relatively detached course of the previous term, but it is highly likely that the US will be forced to become more deeply engaged and involved than some in Washington, and in the Middle East, would like.
The essays by INSS researchers compiled in this volume offer initial assessments of various aspects of Operation Pillar of Defense, launched by Israel in November 2012. Part I of the collection focuses primarily on military and strategic issues, including the importance of the civilian front and the new “hero” of the operation, the Iron Dome system. Part II is devoted to the political ramifications of the operation, focusing in particular on the roles played by the United States and the new Egyptian regime, and the...
After several weeks in which the three state conveners of the Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction-free zone (WMDFZ) conference failed to reach a joint position on postponement of the conference, the United States, Britain, and Russia issued separate announcements reflecting their different perspectives on the reasons for the delay, and the conditions and timeline for getting the conference on track. This article examines the reasons for the failure to convene the gathering, analyzes who wins and who loses from the postponement,...
This article examines the current situation regarding various elements of Iran’s cyberspace development process. The first section analyzes the country’s cyberspace strategy, while the second section describes the organizational and operational response to the formulated strategy. This comprises three components: infrastructures for training and developing technological manpower for work in cyberspace; technological developments that have already been introduced; and the overall processes of cyberspace force construction....
INSS held a war game (simulation) focusing on the first 48 hours after an Israeli aerial attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructures. When the simulation was planned, it appeared that this fall season would be a critical period, and therefore it was decided to examine possible developments subsequent to an Israeli attack. The scenario of an Israeli attack immediately after the US elections does not reflect the position of INSS. Moreover, the sense of an imminent decision has abated somewhat, but after the US and Israeli elections, the...
According to a report published in the New York Times, Iran has agreed to begin direct talks with the US administration about its nuclear program after the US elections next month. Although the report was denied by both the White House and the Iranian Foreign Minister, the White House spokesperson made it clear that the Obama administration is open to direct talks with Iran about its military nuclear program, and it should come as no surprise if after the elections such a process ensues. Leading figures at US research institutes...
Most articles in the Iranian media on the nuclear issue reiterate Iran’s “inalienable right” to enrich uranium according to the NPT. Iran contends that as a member of the NPT, it is treated unfairly by the international community when demands are made that it suspend enrichment. Iran has repeated this mantra so often that many experts and policymakers – even if critical of Iran’s nuclear program – concede that as a member of the NPT, Iran indeed has the right to enrich uranium. Ahead of a fresh round of...
The recent statement by US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta about the need to confront Iranian cyber warfare waged against American targets highlights developments of the last two years regarding Iran’s extended activity to construct defensive and offensive cyber capabilities. Apparently underway is a large cyber campaign by Iran, both to attack various targets in retaliation for the sanctions imposed against it and to repel the cyber attacks directed at it.
