The dispute between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots is one of the most prolonged open conflicts, and to date, efforts at a resolution by the international community have failed. Over the past year, calls from Ankara have increased for a paradigm shift to resolve the conflict, from a federal arrangement to a two-state arrangement. Developments during the July visit to Cyprus by Turkey’s President exacerbated Greek Cypriot fears of a change in Turkish policy that will culminate in Turkish annexation of Northern Cyprus and...
During Operation Guardian of the Walls, Turkey was one of the countries that expressed extreme criticism of Israel’s policy. Turkey’s vitriolic rhetoric was accompanied by diplomatic efforts, mainly but not exclusively direct, at leaders of Muslim countries. Turkey also took extensive action through government media aimed at the international community. Following the escalation, the Turkish Foreign Minister threatened that the Muslim world would send an international force to Jerusalem in order to prevent any recurrence...
Relations between Turkey and the United States, which have been at crisis level for some time, sustained a further shock with the explicit use by US President Joe Biden of the term “Armenian genocide” on April 24, Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day. Already during the administrations of Barack Obama and Donald Trump the image of Turkey in Washington changed from a valued ally to a state with barely any supporters in the US capital, and opposition to the policy of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is bi-partisan. Decisions that are...
The recent appointment of a new unified government in Libya has fueled cautious optimism that the war-torn North African country may finally be stabilizing after a decade of chaos and conflict. But numerous obstacles remain, not least the ongoing involvement of external actors in Libya, where a broader regional conflict between competing camps has played out alongside an ongoing struggle for influence between Russia, Europe, and the US. Turkey, Russia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates retain varying degrees of influence in the...
For years European Union heads of state have debated what policy the EU should adopt vis-à-vis Turkey. The dilemma has intensified in recent years due to the aggressive external policy and authoritarian internal policy pursued by Erdogan. Relations with Turkey have deteriorated substantially, from its being a candidate for EU membership to being an object of threatened European sanctions. These complex relations, and the attempt on both sides to contain the rift, also have implications for Israel. The lack of a comprehensive solution...
Political and security relations between Greece and Cyprus on the one hand and the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia on the other have taken a major step forward over the past year. Political meetings, security agreements, and joint military exercises hint at the possible emergence of a new regional alignment. Underlying this convergence is an effort to thwart Ankara’s regional ambitions by linking the Gulf to the Eastern Mediterranean, although this step is liable to exacerbate the existing tension in these theaters. It is...
During the first week of March 2021, the Turkish press highlighted Egypt’s ostensible compliance with disputed Turkish maritime claims in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu quickly welcomed the development, and hinted at negotiations between Cairo and Ankara to establish a maritime boundary, as well as broader rapprochement. These statements represent a strange turn of events, considering the animosity between the two states, and they counter recent trends in the Eastern Mediterranean. Observers of...
A decade after the regional upheaval, the struggle over the shape of the Middle East continues to play out in two realms: over the regional order, between four camps seeking to advance their ideology and interests; and within the states, between rulers and publics clashing over fundamental economic, social, and identity-related problems that have not been resolved since the Arab Spring and have even intensified. 2020 saw a decline in the confidence of the Iran-led Shiite axis; a rise in the assertiveness of the axis led by Turkey; a...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community.
The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...
The maritime border demarcation agreement between Greece and Egypt signed on August 6, 2020 represents a direct counter-response to the maritime border demarcation agreement between Turkey and the Government of National Accord in Libya that was signed in November 2019. The Greece-Egypt agreement was described by leaders in Athens and Cairo as a new stage in their bilateral relations. Furthermore, it signifies an important step in solidifying an anti-Turkish axis in the Middle East, which is led by Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and Israel,...
