The global, regional, and internal implications of the coronavirus are still not fully clear, but Israel’s 35th government will have no 100-day grace period. It must quickly restore the economy to full activity, despite the presence of the virus and the possibility of a renewed outbreak. On the security level, all the regimes in the Middle East are busy with the pandemic and internal affairs, and will most likely seek to avoid escalation in conflicts with Israel. At the same time, the risk of unplanned escalation (in Syria,...
The military, economic, and political conflict between Iran and the United States is escalating. Following the attacks on bases in Iraq where US forces are stationed and provocative action against US vessels by Iranian gunboats, potential exists for a limited direct conflict, even though neither side wants one. Friction is also increasing regarding the US drive to extend the article in UN Security Council Resolution 2231 on a conventional weapons embargo against Iran, which was passed following the signing of the nuclear agreement...
President Trump’s relations with the American intelligence community reflect a deep crisis in the relations between intelligence agencies and decision makers, which are complex in any case. An analysis of the crisis reveals a complicated picture. Trump’s criticism is partly justified, and indeed speaks to fundamental problems afflicting the intelligence organizations in the United States. It appears, however, that underlying the crisis is Trump’s more basic and disturbing concept of the role that the mechanisms and...
At the core of the strategic assessment for 2020 stands the tension between Israel’s evident strength and its success in various fields, and the possibility that this positive state of affairs will prove temporary and fragile. This tension stems from a series of factors that in the coming year could lead to a large-scale conflict and even to war, and involves Israel’s approach to a series of substantive national security challenges: Iran’s increasing audacity – on the nuclear issue, in its efforts at force buildup in Syria and other...
The Iranian regime is waging a campaign on the diplomatic, economic, and nuclear fronts as it confronts the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policy. The Iranian policy, dubbed “maximum resistance” by the regime, centers on the refusal to meet Trump and resume negotiations before the sanctions imposed on Tehran by Washington are lifted. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif is conducting a series of political visits to many countries in defiance of the sanctions imposed on him by Washington. In...
An official announcement released by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on July 22, 2019 stated that Director General (DG) Yukiya Amano had passed away. The announcement came on the day that Amano was scheduled to announce his early retirement from his position in March 2020. Thus, the idea of the need for a replacement was already in the air, but the timeline for appointing a new DG has narrowed dramatically, and discussions regarding Amano’s replacement have reportedly already begun among IAEA member states. This article...
The recent escalation in the confrontation between the United States and Iran demonstrates the determination of both sides not to concede any ground, on the understanding that doing so would undercut their ability to bargain in any future negotiations. In parallel to the mutual muscle-flexing there are mediation efforts underway, currently led by French President Macron, in an effort to formulate the conditions and nature of a dialogue. Looking ahead, the two likeliest scenarios remain as they were: protracted confrontation between...
