The claim by US negotiator Wendy Sherman that “verification” is the key element in ensuring that the Iranian nuclear program is and remains completely peaceful has resonated in a string of US statements in the same vein, aimed to reassure skeptics that the United States will be able to detect and deal in a timely manner with an Iranian breakout to nuclear weapons. However, while verification is no doubt an essential component of any comprehensive deal with Iran, it should not be regarded as the linchpin of a successful agreement....
In a series of rather rapid moves, Russia, ignoring international criticism, annexed the Crimean Peninsula. In the immediate background to the annexation are more than three months of violent protests in Ukraine, which ended on February 21, 2014 with a coup and the flight of President Yanukovich, and with the establishment of a transitional government that will be in effect until elections in May. Rather than easing the turmoil in Ukraine, however, Russia’s annexation of Crimea has broadened the crisis, especially given the many...
While President Obama has been challenged on a number of international fronts in the course of his five and a half years in office, the Russian invasion of the Crimean Peninsula presents perhaps the most difficult dilemma. According to his criteria and those of Secretary of State Kerry, this is a clear violation of both international agreements and the status quo in Europe, and challenges the credibility of the United States and NATO.
Recent days have seen three important events related to Iran: the start of the talks in Vienna between Iran and the major powers on a final agreement on the Iranian nuclear program; publication of a report by the IAEA stating that Iran is fulfilling its commitments under the interim agreement; and a well-publicized visit to Israel by Wendy Sherman, head of the American negotiating team in the talks with Iran. This cluster of events obligates decision makers in Israel to reexamine the two main questions concerning policy toward the...
The processes that led to the Second Lebanon War and the events that took place during the war are analyzed six years after the war. The starting point for the analysis is the withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, which, according to the analysis, was justified. However, from a broad perspective, it is evident that the overall processes since the withdrawal led to strategic choices that resulted in the IDF’s reduced operational preparedness. The article examines the decision making processes near the start of and during the course of the...
As the only non-NATO littoral state in the Arctic, Russia’s policies have great relevance for the region’s security environment. A series of military deployments and announced upgrades to infrastructure and weapon systems since 2007 have led to speculations that Moscow seeks to remilitarize its Arctic sector in anticipation of a warmer climate in the region. Using strategy documents and policy pronouncements since 2008 as instruments of analysis, this paper considers Moscow’s security intentions
in a climatically changing Arctic. The...
In recent months there has been a significant, even unprecedented rise in contacts between Russia and the new government in Egypt. The main topic discussed in these talks is increasing bilateral military cooperation. According to many reports, a large arms deal, to the tune of $2-3 billion, was discussed, and possibly even reached. If the talks between Egypt and Russia lead to a significant arms deal, this would represent an important change in Egyptian policy. A decision by the current Egyptian government several months after it...
A recent article in Newsweek reported that “according to a well-placed intelligence source,” in 2007 Saudi Arabia began to purchase CSS-5 (DF-21) ground-to-ground missiles from China. While similar reports appeared in the past, the recently published information is distinguished by its confirmation by an official – albeit anonymous – source, and by the revelation that the Americans knew about the Saudi-Chinese deal and were involved in it. The report raises many questions about the Saudis’ motivations, the implications of the deal,...
In recent weeks, efforts by US Secretary of State Kerry to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian framework agreement have focused on an attempt to have the parties agree on security arrangements in the Jordan Valley. Secretary Kerry apparently presumes that Israel’s concerns about security issues are the main obstacle to progress, and that once Israel’s concerns are met, further progress on the political process toward an agreement will be possible. What is troubling about this attitude is its rather one-dimensional view of the security...
An impromptu comment by Secretary of State Kerry at the Munich Security Conference on February 1, 2014 regarding “an increasing de-legitimization campaign” against Israel and “talk of boycotts and other kinds of things” ignited a firestorm of criticism in Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s response – “No pressure will cause me to concede the vital interests of the State of Israel, especially the security of Israel’s citizens” – was slightly more measured, but still begs two questions. One concerns the immediacy of the threat and the...
The effort by US Secretary of State Kerry to formulate a set of principles to enable Israel and the Palestinians to continue negotiations on a final status agreement even after the nine month period allotted to the negotiations ends in April 2014 presents both sides with a serious dilemma. On the one hand, each of them will be forced to bite the bullet, which will create political difficulties for them with their own political base of support and the public. On the other hand, whoever is perceived as responsible for the failure of...
On January 20, 2014, IAEAinspectors visited Natanz and Fordow to verify that Iran began implementing theinterim deal with the P5+1 by halting its enrichment of uranium at thesefacilities to 20 percent. The last two months were spent rehashing the terms ofwhat had ostensibly already been decided in late November in Geneva, althoughthe different versions of the agreement that were released by Washington andTehran at the time immediately revealed that the two states were not on thesame page, which did not bode well for the...
