Parallel to its diplomatic engagement with the P5+1 to resolve the nuclear crisis, Iran is engaged in a public campaign to persuade the media and public opinion of its narrative regarding the crisis, which in essence is a nuclear fairy tale. A dominant theme in this narrative is Iranian victimization and mistreatment by a bullying hegemonic West. As the story goes, no proof has been produced that Iran is guilty of any wrongdoing in the nuclear realm. Yet in this context, what is especially disturbing is the fact that the P5+1 states...
It is questionable whether the marginal effect that the Netanyahu speech may have on the current course of the negotiations with Iran justified the row, tension, and latest cracks in the personal relations between Obama and Netanyahu, as well as the danger of Israel becoming a political football in the US partisan rivalry between the Democratic and Republican Parties. To be sure, the Netanyahu Congressional speech affair is not yet over. There might be renewed attempts to legislate new laws that aim to limit the administration’s...
Global oil prices have fallen dramatically over the past six months, following an excess of supply over demand. The drop in prices is another blow to Iran and to Russia, which are both under economic sanctions. Iran is accusing Saudi Arabia of conducting an oil war, and is threatening to respond to it. These threats highlight the danger of the Iranian nuclear process to the stability of the Persian Gulf in particular, and to the global energy market in general. The economic pressure on Iran, however, is likely to constitute an...
In his State of the Union address on January 20, 2015, President Barack Obama stated that Iran’s progress toward achieving military nuclear capability had been halted and its stockpiles of materials with nuclear potential reduced as a result of the dialogue on the nuclear issue between the world powers (the P5+1) and Iran. Obama’s sentiments were reiterated by Secretary of State Kerry and U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Samantha Power. This was the backdrop for the administration’s expressed dissatisfaction with Israeli Prime Minister...
The attack in the Golan Heights near Quneitra on January 18, 2015, which killed Hizbollah operatives and Iranian Revolutionary Guards al-Quds Force commanders, was attributed to Israel. Iran and Hizbollah appear to be seeking an appropriate violent response to restore deterrence and signal to Israel that they will not accept a change in the rules of the game, but without this leading to war. A January 19 headline in the Lebanese daily as-Safir read: “More than a Response, Less than a War.” The axis has a number of possible responses...
Trends that marked the Middle East in preceding years that were joined in 2014 by new developments are analyzed in this volume, as well as the response of regional and international actors to these processes of change. To date, no political or military response has been found to contain the threat inherent in the crises occupying the regional and international communities in recent years, let alone resolve them. It is therefore likely that these crises will maintain their central position on the international agenda both during 2015...
Significant changes have taken place in Iran’s regional standing since the start of the previous decade, largely as a result of the regional upheavals and Iran’s efforts to cope with the new situation. There were three main reasons for these changes. The first is the rise of a new type of terrorist organization with far reaching political and religious pretensions that seeks to promote global jihad – and also threatens Iran and its interests in Iraq and Syria. Al-Qaeda was the first such organization, followed by Islamic State...
The overall framework for assessing developments in the course of 2014 regarding the Iranian nuclear crisis is the ongoing negotiation geared to conclusion of a comprehensive deal between the P5+1 and Iran. These negotiations began in January 2014, with the implementation of the interim deal – or in its official name, the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), secured in late November 2013 – and continue to the time of this writing, after the parties failed to meet two deadlines along the way: July 20, 2014 and November 24, 2014. When the...
Ethnic, political, and religious rifts make Yemen one of the most complex arenas in the Middle East, even more so following the eruption of the Arab Spring, which in November 2011 ended the 33-year regime of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The disintegration of the delicate political balance Saleh created has brought Yemen to the brink of an abyss with competing elites, ethnic revolts, separatists, external intervention and fundamentalist terrorism threatening to divide the country while hindering the new regime’s attempts to build a...
