The overall framework for assessing developments in the course of 2014 regarding the Iranian nuclear crisis is the ongoing negotiation geared to conclusion of a comprehensive deal between the P5+1 and Iran. These negotiations began in January 2014, with the implementation of the interim deal – or in its official name, the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), secured in late November 2013 – and continue to the time of this writing, after the parties failed to meet two deadlines along the way: July 20, 2014 and November 24, 2014. When the...
Signs of a severe economic crisis in Russia, threatening the stability and future of Vladimir Putin’s regime, are multiplying. The economic sanctions imposed on Russia are among the main triggers of the crisis, along with the sharp decline in the price of oil, which – according to Russian officials – is the result of deliberate anti-Russian activity initiated by the United States. However, it is too early to eulogize Putin’s rule. He still enjoys widespread public support and projects a sense of being in control of the situation....
The decision by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to seek a UN Security Council resolution that would recognize a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital, and would require Israel’s withdrawal from the territories by the end of 2017 has forced many countries, in the Middle East and around the world, to revisit the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and restore the issue yet again to the front burner. This development has inevitably also placed the political process with the Palestinians and...
Three interesting processes are underway as a direct result of Edward Snowden’s revelations about the extent of the access by US security services to personal information stored and processed in the IT systems of global American companies. One of these processes is essentially technological, the second is legal, and the third is of a business nature. All three processes are designed to constrict access by American government agencies to personal information held by those companies, in their effort to preserve national security and...
The target date for concluding a final agreement on the Iranian nuclear program between Iran and the P5+1 world powers has been postponed yet once more, and many doubt whether Iran and the Western powers will ever be able to achieve an agreement. Extension of the negotiations with Iran on a nuclear agreement gives Israel a seven-month period in which it does not have to make fateful decisions on the matter. On July 1, 2015, however, if a “bad agreement” is signed or if the talks collapse, Israel will face a strategic situation that...
The hastily-arranged summit in Amman on November 13, 2014 produced the desired – albeit short term – benefits. King Abdullah appeared to be a voice of responsibility and moderation in an otherwise tense, hostile, and volatile region. He reemphasized his role as custodian of the Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem, a reliable partner of the United States, and a key ally in the battle against ISIS. However, the results of the summit should be seen as tenuous and temporary. Lip service was paid to efforts to resume a peace process, and...
Russia has not (yet) joined the US-led coalition against ISIS, and its official spokespersons have not spared their criticism of the coalition’s management of the struggle. What are the roots of Russia’s policy? The war against ISIS is Russia’s current bargaining chip. Moscow is apparently increasingly aware that it should try to achieve an understanding with the Western powers that will lift the sanctions regime and implement an arrangement in Ukraine – in exchange for Russian participation in the struggle against ISIS. Whether a...
The sweeping Republican victory in the Congressional elections indicates virtually nothing about the 2016 presidential elections. On November 4, 2014, the US cast a vote of criticism and protest against an incumbent president, and not necessarily a vote in favor of Republican ideology. At the very least, therefore, Israeli politicians should look forward to 2016, and remember that while a president in office caused his party to lose control of the Senate, a charismatic presidential candidate is likely to carry candidates from his...
As the talks between Iran and the P5+1 continue, the INSS Arms Control and Regional Security Program held a simulation exercise to explore possible developments following a “bad nuclear deal” – one that effectively enables Iran to maintain a nuclear breakout capability. The simulation highlighted some possible outcomes that could follow the signing of a “bad” nuclear agreement with Iran, and on this basis recommended several courses of action, including: Israel should act now to close potential loopholes in any prospective deal...
It appears that President Obama’s focus on air strikes against the Islamic State (IS) is only an opening act, and by itself stands no chance of defeating the organization and arresting the tide of volunteers flocking to join its ranks. IS fighters blend into the urban environment, making it difficult for the coalition forces to identify them and seriously damage their capabilities. An aerial campaign without a ground offensive can, at most, impede the activity of IS forces. To win the campaign, it is necessary to persuade the...
It was only a matter of time before the debate began about who was responsible for the failed strategic assessment about the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Less than a year ago, few people knew about ISIS and the risks it represented. Suddenly, within just a few months, ISIS leads the list of threats of a long line of nations, beginning with the United States, and is considered a threat so severe that exceptional steps must be taken in order to confront it. The US intelligence community will likely continue to find it...
