On August 1, 2008, Syrian general Mohammed Suleiman was gunned down on the beach near the Syrian city of Tartous. Only after five days of thunderous silence, Syrian officials, with typical reticence, reported that the general had indeed been assassinated and that an investigation was underway to find the culprits. Meantime, journalists and commentators have proposed different theories regarding the identity of the assassin and the reasons for the attack. The answers to these questions have many – and contradictory –implications: for...
On July 13-14, the Mediterranean Union summit – a new civilian forum for cooperation launched by President Sarkozy – was held in Paris. Over forty heads of state and their foreign ministers were invited. Nonetheless, it seems that the ג€most shining starג€ of all, to borrow the description of the Syrian newspaper Tashreen, was President Asad. Dozens of interviews with the media and a personal meeting with the French president seemed to cast Bashar Asad as the guest of honor. Thus the ostensible political-diplomatic message to...
Given the official US statements, backed by extraordinary visual evidence, there is little doubt that the Israeli Air Force raid on the night of September 6, 2007 destroyed a building housing a nuclear reactor. There are many political and military ramifications both of the facts themselves and the way they were brought to light. However, one of the longer term effects is the impact of the revelations on the nuclear non-proliferation regime in general and on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in particular.
Ever since the Geneva Conference in December 1973, Middle Easterners have become used to the suspense surrounding the question of whether the ג€bad boyג€ of Arab politics, Syria, will or will not take part in any meeting connected with the peace process. In recent years, as Syria has become more closely integrated into the political axis led by Iran, the question has become less interesting. Still, it has arisen again in advance of the Annapolis meeting. Will Syria take part and, if so, at how senior a level?
Immediately with the announcement of the ceasefire and the end of the fighting between Israel and the Hizbollah organization, both sides – as well as those who had observed from the sidelines – hurried to claim victory. Hizbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah declared that Hizbollah’s victory in the war was an historic event, and possibly an historic turning point in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Syrian president Bashar Asad, who had not involved his country directly in the war yet did not disguise his support of Hizbollah or...
The recent series of interviews with Syrian President Bashar Asad in Arab and Western media reveals the extent of changes in the Middle East, in general, and Syria, in particular, in the wake of the confrontation between Israel and Hizbullah in the summer of 2006. Before that conflict, Asad hardly ever mentioned “Israeli aggression against Syria that can end in war” or the “state of alert” in the Syrian army, but since then, Asad has repeatedly stressed the readiness of his military forces.
The latest report of the United Nations International Independent Investigation Commission into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri refrained from pointing the finger of suspicion directly at Syria. Nevertheless, its ongoing work, and especially the intention of Lebanon, supported by elements at the UN, to establish a special international tribunal to try those accused of involvement in the assassination, have already raised concerns in Syria about an additional wave of pressure that could culminate, this...
The confrontation between Israel and Hizbullah that has unfolded since the abduction of two soldiers on July 12 has prompted considerable speculation about future Syrian policy. One school of thought argues that Syria under President Bashar al-Asad will not stop at the brink and will actively support Hizbullah. However, the regime’s behavior in this confrontation suggests that a rational calculation of vital interests will prompt Asad to adopt a pragmatic stance.
Early in the morning of June 27, Israel Air Force planes broke the sound barrier as they flew over the palace of Syrian President Bashar al-Asad in the Asad family’s hometown of Qardaha. That action was apparently driven by a lesson learned from a similar overflight four years before, in the fall of 2002, which was intended to warn Asad against escalation of the situation on the Israeli-Lebanese border but failed to impress him because he was completely unaware of the overflight at the time and only learned about it from...
On October 21, German investigator Detlev Mehlis submitted to the UN Security Council his interim report on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri. The report, which accuses the Syrian authorities of being behind the murder and of subsequently trying to sabotage the investigation, has caused the ground to tremble in Damascus.
The exchange of fire across Israel’s northern border in mid-May has once again focused attention on Hizbullah and raised questions about the movement’s future in the wake of Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon. Some analysts interpret the clash as evidence of Hizbullah’s intention to escalate tensions and provoke a confrontation; others believe that the movement prefers a period of quiet, if only for tactical reasons, and that what it really wants now is to divert the heavy domestic and international pressure to...
Last week, the governments of Syria and Lebanon announced that Syrian forces in Lebanon would be redeployed outside of Lebanese population centers and that Damascus even intends to pull about half of its troops completely out of Lebanon. Syrian sources stressed that these steps are in keeping with the 1989 Taef Agreement that ended the Lebanese civil war. But they also admitted that they are a signal to the international community, and especially the United States, that Syria is responsive to voices from Washington demanding Syrian...
