According to foreign sources, about two weeks ago, Israel attacked targets in Syrian territory. Assuming that a convoy of SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles en route from Syria to Lebanon was in fact attacked by Israel, as was reported by foreign sources, several questions arise. What other types of weapons could Syria move to Lebanon? What are the possible reasons for Syria choosing to move these weapons to Lebanon at this time? The article addresses these questions, discussing the motives behind the possible transfer of weapons and the...
Operation Change of Direction, the code name given to Israel’s war against Hizbollah in Lebanon in 2006 by the Operations Directorate of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), was the most inconclusive performance by far in the IDF’s many trials by fire since 1948, in that it represented the first time that a major regional confrontation ended without a clear cut victory on Israel’s part. The campaign’s uneven course and outcome resulted from a more overarching deficiency in strategy choice, whose most flawed...
Following the assassination of key personnel in the Syrian security establishment in a successful attack by the rebels, and the battles between opposition forces and the Syrian army in parts of Damascus and Aleppo – the two major cities whose fall would signal the fall of Assad’s regime – assessments of the impending collapse of the regime have become more prevalent. These assessments have again touched off a debate about Syria’s chemical weapons in a scenario of a disintegrating regime.
Eighteen months have elapsed since the start of the uprising against the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, which began as a local insurrection and developed into a full scale civil war, with over 20,000 dead so far. Although the process, marked by the escalation of fighting and mass inter-ethnic killing, is beyond the point of no return, it is impossible to predict how and when the uprising in Syria will end. The Assad regime is fighting for its survival, and despite an increasing number of defections, still enjoys the support of the...
Following the recent downing of a Turkish reconnaissance jet by Syrian anti-aircraft, the international community, this time through NATO, is once again debating what course of action should be taken with respect to Syria. In the past weeks, the Syrian crisis has become more intense, violent, and regionalized, in turn raising the level of international interest in finding a way to stop the bloodshed and end the crisis. So far, however, the international community’s efforts have fallen short. Diplomatic initiatives by Turkey, the Arab...
On May 20, 2012, at the end of their meeting in Chicago, the leaders of NATO member nations published a statement whose formulation downplayed a host of unresolved problems that have ramifications for the organization’s future. The nature of summit meetings is such that concluding declarations do not dwell on disagreements any more than necessary. This was especially true of the Chicago summit, which had to end with a demonstration of unity given that the meeting was supposed to help Obama’s reelection campaign.
Recent days have seen violent clashes around Tripoli, Lebanon’s second largest city located in the north of the country, between Alawite supporters of the Syrian regime and Sunni backers of the anti-Assad opposition forces. To many observers, this violent escalation came as a surprise, in light of the widespread assumption that Lebanon had so far been immune to the “Arab Spring.” In fact, the opposite is the case: the ongoing regional turmoil has been felt keenly within Lebanon. This is especially the case regarding...
Often serving as a surrogate for inter-state conflicts, Lebanon has traditionally been a playing field for regional and international actors alike, and thus battling for Beirut has become a key feature of contemporary Middle Eastern politics. This monograph studies the role and influence of foreign intervention in Lebanese domestic affairs, focusing particularly on the shifts in the dynamics of power following the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005. The study explores the complexities behind the involvement of several major...
This article presents several facts and conclusions stemming from the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000. It also discusses two other events that occurred after the withdrawal: the Second Lebanon War in 2006, and a relatively small yet important event, the departure of Syrian forces from Lebanon in 2005. All these events are connected to one another.
This article aims to provide a balanced picture of the phenomenon of cyberwar. It will show how and why the meaning of “cyberwar” has evolved from the narrow conception referring exclusively to military interaction to its broad meaning, which has become detached from “war” and encompasses almost every activity linked to the aggressive use of computers. In particular, it will distinguish between different forms of cyber conflict in order to lay the ground for a levelheaded threat assessment. It further shows...
Israel’s military engagement with Hizbollah in the summer of 2006 has been called by many different names and monikers, including, of course, the Second Lebanon War, which was adopted by Israel as the official name of the war. Some commentators on Arab television stations called it the sixth Arab-Israeli round. In truth, however, most of the Arab world, at least its leaders and important segments of its ruling elites, supported Israel, and more precisely, stood aside with the expectation, which ultimately was not met, that...
In 2010, Lebanon yet again embarked on another round of “national dialogue” to formulate a comprehensive and unified national defense strategy, and to tackle the regulation of armed militias and “resistance” groups, including Hizbollah. The process, which was first inaugurated in 2006, has highlighted the differences between the ruling March 14 coalition – advocating a normalization of the internal power distribution by disarming all armed groups – and the Hizbollah-led opposition forces, which reject this...
