One year after the uprisings known as the “Arab spring” erupted, this collection of fifteen articles explores what is evident thus far as to the regional and international ramifications of the upheavals, with special reference to the potential ramifications for Israeli national security. Among the questions addressed: Why did the upheavals occur now, and what do they portend for the future? How have the major powers and certain Arab states, ostensibly spared the turmoil, responded to the events? Where do Iran and Turkey...
In December 2011, Syrian military forces held several exercises with live ammunition. These exercises were – not in typical fashion – well covered by the Syrian media. On December 4, it was reported that an armored corps exercise and a missile force exercise had taken place. A Syrian television broadcast showed a number of launches of all types of Syrian long range ballistic missiles. In addition, the broadcast showed the launches of heavy rockets (220 mm and 302 mm). On December 20, the Syrian media reported two additional...
The book includes thirteen analytical essays written by INSS researchers. Focus is on Israel’s strategic environment, particularly in the wake of the major changes experienced in the Middle East commonly known as the Arab spring. The ongoing Palestinian issue and Iran’s nuclear program remain at the fore of the challenges facing Israel. Other issues explored in the volume include the “new” Middle East and the role of the superpowers, Turkey, and questions of particular urgency to Israel, including the...
Over the course of 2011, the international community – and in particular the trans-Atlantic bloc and Russia – was challenged by the need to contend with major domestic political-economic issues on the one hand, and on the other hand, to confront the Arab spring and provide an appropriate political, economic, and at times military response. These challenges will continue to preoccupy the United States, the European Union, and Russia in 2012 and beyond, and will impel them to try to avoid further deterioration in their domestic...
In recent years, Russia has in practice served as the gatekeeper of international pressures on Iran and Syria. These nations, along with Hizbollah and Hamas, constitute the Middle East’s anti-Western (and of course anti-Israel) “axis of evil,” dedicated to a global struggle to promote its members’ radical agenda. However, it is necessary to distinguish between two current issues: international pressure on Syria in the wake of its brutal suppression of the popular uprising, and developments stemming from the publication of...
In what perhaps can be heralded as a turning point in Russia’s Middle East policy, seemingly coordinated statements have recently been sounded in important settings and the media by senior Russian figures (leading experts on the Middle East, politicians, and even the president himself). These statements have included criticism of the revolutionary process underway in the Middle East, portrayed as fundamentally negative and rife with risks for both regional and global stability. According to these pronouncements, the Arab spring...
The shocks that have lately rocked the Middle East surprised Russia, along with many other international actors, and the new reality, marked by general instability and uncertainty, has left it at a loss for action. However, Russia’s strong desire to maintain its status in the Middle East has driven it to seek political alternatives that will enable it to play a role in shaping the future of the region. The considerations guiding Russia are on the one hand the risk of losing all previous achievements and perhaps sustain similar...
Russia has recently taken a renewed interest in the Middle East peace process. Several factors apparently led Russia to conclude that the time is ripe to raise new proposals: Russia is finding itself sidelined in the process; its sense of self-confidence is returning; and it apparently assesses that the international standing of the United States is weakening and the current peace process has reached a dead end.
“An historic encounter; a turning point in the history of the organization” was how some of the NATO leaders assessed the summit in Lisbon (November 19-20, 2010). The focus of the summit was approval of the new strategic concept that will underlie the organization’s activities in the coming years. Other issues on the agenda were a plan of action for Afghanistan and relations with Russia. Like the other documents arrived at by consensus, the approved document embodies the broadest common denominator. Differences of opinion between the...
A lively brainstorming process has been underway in Russia on the future face of the country and Russia’s position within the international system. The two annual international conferences held in Russia were also devoted to these topics: the Valdai International Discussion Club, held under the auspices of Prime Minister Putin, and the Yaroslavl Forum, sponsored by President Medvedev. These conferences considered fundamental issues concerning Russia’s future political path: whether it is a superpower competing for its position in the...
During his recent talks in Washington with Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Russian defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov announced that Russia would supply Syria with P-800 Yakhont cruise missiles.
August 21, 2010 marked the official inauguration in Bushehr of Iran’s first nuclear power plant, which was built by Russia. It seems that this event finally put an end to the drawn-out ordeal, which in recent years has been used as leverage for international pressure on Iran and has been riddled with question marks. The plant’s inauguration was marked by a celebratory ceremony attended by Iran’s vice president and head of its atomic energy organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, and the head of Russia’s atomic agency (ROSATOM), Sergei...
